The administration of President Donald Trump emerged weakened, albeit relatively, from the midterm elections after losing control of the US House of Representatives, one of the two chambers of Congress. How will this affect its foreign policy? That is the big question, and the answer will become clear soon. What already seems evident, however, is that the US administration will become more reliant on Israel on Iran and other issues, including Lebanon. There are fears that the administration may give Israel a green light in Lebanon, while maintaining some back-and-forth with it over Iran.
What cannot be overlooked is that any government formed in Israel following the recent parliamentary elections will be in a more cohesive position than the Trump administration. This is because Benjamin Netanyahu will retain a central role in everything related to Israeli policy, regardless of which government is formed in the near or distant future. There will be no fundamental change in Israel's policy towards Iran, regardless of the nature of the next government, whether headed by Netanyahu or someone else, such as Gadi Eisenkot, who differs little from "Bibi" when it comes to the fundamentals.
It will become clear in the coming hours whether the Trump administration has also lost control of the Senate or whether Republicans still hold a majority there. Retaining a Senate majority would offset the loss of control of the House of Representatives and preserve a degree of balance between the two chambers of Congress. Ultimately, the ability of both chambers to create obstacles for any US administration should not be underestimated, despite the presidential nature of the American political system. It should also be borne in mind that the House of Representatives is an essential gateway for all matters relating to appropriations and approval of ambassadorial and senior government appointments.
It is clear that Americans are dissatisfied with the administration's performance, particularly on the economic front. Above all else, what matters to Americans is the price of a gallon of gasoline. Midterm elections, in which all House seats and a portion of Senate seats are contested, reflect the extent to which Americans approve of the administration overall, particularly its handling of the economy. The current administration will have to demonstrate that it still commands the authority and prestige shaken by the midterm results. This comes as Trump continues to repeat that "we have defeated Iran militarily and politically", that "the war will end soon", and that "fuel prices will fall rapidly" and return to their prewar levels. There is growing American fatigue with the unfulfilled promises the US president makes almost daily.
Against this backdrop, it is too early to consider the Trump administration a lame duck, particularly as it remains determined to secure a victory over Iran's "Islamic Republic". The US president still has the ability to deploy American forces for a limited period.
In reality, Trump remains preoccupied with reaching a deal with Iran that is better than the one Barack Obama struck in 2015 over its nuclear programme. He will not be able to secure such a deal with the "Islamic Republic" under the current balance of power. Trump will have to alter that balance, and such a shift will not be possible without a strike against Iran involving Israel in one way or another.
In short, Israel will play a greater role in shaping and determining US foreign policy in the foreseeable future. Trump will need the Israeli state if he encounters obstacles in the House of Representatives or the Senate. The US president will no longer enjoy the freedom of action on the world stage that he currently has. He will face constraints that he will have no choice but to take into account if he wishes to pursue the same political approach, particularly towards Iran. Israel alone will be able to help him overcome these constraints, especially when it comes to the "Islamic Republic"...
One extremely important question will emerge in the post-election period, following the Republicans' loss of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate: Will Israel's brutality towards the Palestinians face criticism from Democratic representatives and senators, putting the administration in an embarrassing position?
It is true that the attack launched by Hamas under the name "Al-Aqsa Flood", which targeted Israeli civilians in the settlements surrounding Gaza, provided the US administration with justification for shielding Netanyahu's government and its actions. But it is equally true that questions have begun to emerge in many American circles, including within Congress, about Israel's conduct, even as it continues to have the first and last word in Washington. Will Trump's need for "Bibi" grow as his grip on Congress weakens?
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar
