What President Donald Trump feared has occurred: Democrats achieved a sweeping victory in the midterm elections, taking control of both houses of Congress. The results are widely seen as a referendum on the president and his policies, from increased tariffs and the aggressive campaign against immigrants, including their deportation to third countries, to the politicization of the judiciary, the elimination of thousands of government jobs, and the rapid enrichment of Trump and his close circle. They also reflect growing tensions with allies in Europe and Asia, and above all, the Iran war, which has driven fuel and food prices to levels not seen in decades.
Now, how will these results affect the Iran war, as Trump sways between military and diplomatic options amid military mobilizations exceeding those seen before the February 28 war, and intensive communications by Qatari, Pakistani, Omani, and Russian mediators to seal an agreement?
First of all, Trump must consider the new balance of power in Congress. He may either take heed and yield to the voters' will, who clearly rejected the war, or go in the opposite direction to demonstrate that the change in Congress does not affect his powers as Commander in Chief, subsequently ordering new strikes on Iran. This time, however, they could be driven by retaliation for the outcome of his presidency, following Tehran's refusal to accept his terms for a deal.
The Republican Party, from the moment the midterm election results were announced, has been thinking about the 2028 presidential elections. Here emerges Vice President J.D. Vance, considered one of the leading Republican figures eligible to secure the party's presidential nomination. Vance does not wish to inherit a never-ending war in the Middle East and therefore favors ending the conflict with Iran through diplomacy.
In light of the midterm election results, Vance is undoubtedly confirmed in his longstanding advocacy for a political solution with Iran. This stance is supported by the MAGA movement, whose activists have openly opposed the war.
Media personality Tucker Carlson stirred controversy with his claim that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Trump to use a nuclear weapon against Pickaxe Mountain in Iran, suspecting nuclear activities deep within the mountain, which is fortified by layers of granite that Carlson believes conventional bombs cannot penetrate. Once a staunch supporter of Trump, Carlson turned against him after the Iran war, viewing it as a betrayal of Trump's pledge not to engage in foreign wars during his second term.
Additionally, The New York Times revealed that Israel provided intelligence to the United States indicating that Iran is considering "using chemical weapons" against its foes. The report raised doubts among some U.S. officials about the credibility of this intelligence, at a time when Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to resume the war. Those skeptical of the Israeli report fear a repeat of former President George W. Bush's experience, when he went to war in Iraq claiming that Saddam Hussein's regime possessed chemical and biological weapons, only for that information to later be revealed as untrue.
What is certain is that Trump faces a difficult question today: Will he defy the majority of Americans who oppose the war, or will he return to the military option, influenced by Netanyahu, who is himself facing a challenging situation at home after his right-wing coalition lost its majority in the elections held on October 27? Netanyahu thus sees no alternative but to place Israel in a state of emergency to force the opposition to join him in a national unity government.
Trump quickly acknowledged that Iran was one of the reasons behind the Republicans' defeat and the blue wave that swept the elections. He argued that voters were not ready to bear the increased fuel prices caused by the war, despite his belief that what he did in Iran was necessary.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
