Why Castro’s indictment could lead to war between the US and Cuba

Havana —  It’s an indictment that could doom any lingering chance of a deal to avoid armed conflict between the United States and Cuba. The federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro regarding the downing of a civilian plane in 1996 fired up the Cuban exile community in Miami, where the indictment was announced Wednesday – the same day the Cuban diaspora celebrate their independence from Spain. Seeing an increasingly weakened government in Havana, anti-Castro exiles have advocated against any accommodation with Havana that leaves Cuban government officials in power. But for Cubans on the island who support the revolution, there is little chance that Castro is going anywhere, much less a Miami court room. “He is the living embodiment of the revolution,” former US diplomat Ricardo Zúñiga told CNN of Castro. Zúñiga was part of the secret negotiating team that struck a deal with Cuban officials, including Raul Castro’s son, to restore diplomatic ties during the Obama administration. Indicting Castro as a way to pressure the Cuban government into a deal may well backfire, Zúñiga said. “Eventually the frustration on both sides could lead to conflict simply because Washington shuts down communication with the Cuban government through this indictment,” the former diplomat. said. But many exiles believe the revolution founded by Fidel and Raul Castro is crumbling and additional pressure is all that’s needed to hasten a now inevitable collapse. “The time of the Castros is over,” Congresswoman Maria Elivra Salazar (R-FL), who is Cuban-American, declared on X on Tuesday. For Miami exiles, Cuban forces’ shooting down in 1996 of two civilian planes belonging to the volunteer group Brothers to the Rescue – killing four Cuban-Americans aboard – represents a crime that has gone unpunished for over 30 years. ‘It’s a country that really needs help’ While repeatedly mentioning his popularity among Cuban-American voters, Trump has not ruled out a potential deal that could avoid a US attack on the communist-run island. “I can (make a deal) whether you change the regime or not. It has been a rough regime and they killed a lot of people,” Trump told reporters Tuesday. “But it’s a country that really needs help. They can’t turn on the lights, they can’t eat. We don’t want to see that.” A vintage car passes by images of late Cuban President Fidel Castro, Cuba’s former President Raul Castro and Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel displayed on a billboard in Havana, Cuba, May 15, 2026. Norlys Perez/Reuters People queue to buy bread on a street in Havana on May 18, 2026. Yamil Lage/AFP/Getty Images While Trump claims the Cuban government is “desperate” to make a deal, he said the same about Venezuela and Iran where negotiations abruptly ended with US military strikes. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American and staunch foe of the Castros, has said Cuba’s top leadership needs to go. Faced with such stark options, the Cuban government may choose to go down fighting rather than cede power without firing a shot. This is a country where every official speech ends with the cry of “Fatherland or death!” Burgeoning economic and humanitarian crisis The Trump administration’s oil blockade on Cuba, however, has pushed the island even closer to the brink of an economic and humanitarian crisis. Sanctions against foreign companies doing business with the Cuban government have also forced some shipping lines that import food to the island to announce they are ceasing operations. The increasing scarcities and blackouts have sparked scattered anti-government protests, something Cuban officials typically do not tolerate. An extraordinary visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe last week served to put the Cuban government on notice, US officials said, and warn Havana that its window to make concessions was closing. On Monday, the State Department announced a new round of economic sanctions against top officials. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel dismissed the measures, saying no Cuban officials “had property to protect under US jurisdiction.” The indictment of Raul Castro though, who headed the Cuban military at the time of the shootdown, raises the temperature between the Cold War-era foes to a level not seen in decades. And the charges lay the groundwork for a possible military operation by the US to extradite him – as took place with Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, a close ally to Cuba. But unlike in Venezuela, where Maduro’s military put up a lackluster defense that was easily routed by US forces, and his former lieutenants quickly fell in line with Trump’s demands, Castro stalwarts are likely to react far more belligerently. Threats of a ‘bloodbath’ As with the 1996 shootdown – the Brothers to the Rescue had previously dropped anti-government leaflets over Havana – Cuban officials insist that today they have the right to defend their sovereignty. Already, Cuba’s military is preparing to fend off a potential US attack and Díaz-Canel has vowed “a blood bath” awaits any invading force. Across the island, the military is carrying out maneuvers while the government warns the civilian population to prepare for an attack. Any move against Castro would likely lead to outright war, even if Cuba is vastly outgunned. Although officially retired, Raul Castro, 94, is still referred to in Cuba as the leader of the revolution and army general. When he makes a rare appearance in public, he still wears a military uniform. Nearly every top political and military official has been hand-picked by Castro and his successor as president and communist party secretary Díaz-Canel says all major decisions are run by him. Targeting Castro may leave Cuban officials little room to maneuver, cautioned former diplomat Zúñiga. “On the Cuban side by shutting down communication they may fail to appreciate that the next stage here from the US side could be some kind of assault,” he said. “But there isn’t much to destroy that isn’t already decrepit.” The post Why Castro’s indictment could lead to war between the US and Cuba appeared first on Egypt Independent.