No mediator in the US-Iran negotiations can yet say clearly where events are heading. The balance between optimism and pessimism now depends on calculations of a different kind. The fatigue among all sides is reflected in reduced enthusiasm for a return to war. Even Benjamin Netanyahu has little to offer anyone willing to share his bloody madness. Meanwhile, the game of brinkmanship between Washington and Tehran could become a prolonged deadlock unless the serious Qatari mediation effort now underway produces a major breakthrough. On the cost side, the world is increasingly convinced that the US cannot go much further in major military adventures. Yet many believe Donald Trump cannot revive the memorandum of understanding with Iran without concessions and amendments. He also knows that while Tehran has been badly damaged by the war and continues to suffer under the blockade, it has little reason to return to an agreement without new guarantees and a higher price from the other side. Everyone is now operating on the assumption that several key factors could determine whether a solution emerges or the talks stall. They include the upcoming elections in occupied Palestine at the end of October and in the US in early November. Their results will themselves take months to translate into political realities. The US administration may not be able to wait until mid-January, when the midterm results are formally consolidated, and could need a quick solution to the crisis caused by the failure to reach an agreement with Iran. In the Israeli occupation, estimates of the coming election results raise the possibility that no strong coalition will emerge capable of forming a stable government. The divisions within Netanyahu's right-wing camp could force him, at a critical moment, to propose a national unity government. But he would not be able to impose such a formula without a new political program. That is the heart of the matter. The contest is not simply over which party wins the most seats. It is about what program could replace the one pursued for three years, during which Israel has become a fire consuming everything around it. No country can sustain such a course, even if its people remain united behind it. Netanyahu's opponents are seeking to attract blocs facing a serious crisis as global attitudes toward Israel change. Talk of Israel acting independently of the outside world makes little sense for a state that cannot survive without Western backing. The US does not control trade through the strait. The most serious consequences will emerge in the coming autumn, and no one will be able to ignore them. In the US, much of the world is living on leaks and statements from Trump and his team insisting that their strategy will not be affected by the midterm elections. But reality is more complicated. A powerful current in the US wants the administration to pursue major settlements, while the administration itself can no longer guarantee favorable results from new military adventures. While the media focuses on claims about full control of the Strait of Hormuz, new sanctions on Iran and other propaganda, Gulf states, financial markets and governments hit by the energy crisis know the reality is far less reassuring. Energy supplies have fallen sharply. The US does not control trade through the strait. The most serious consequences will emerge in the coming autumn, and no one will be able to ignore them. The sanctions on Iran are more performative than substantive. That leaves only stark choices, either a broad, brutal and reckless war, or a settlement that forces everyone to climb down from the tree and move toward a settlement, bringing changes whose consequences will emerge over time. The most important of these will be felt in the Israeli occupation. If everyone is forced to wait for the results of the October elections, in both the Israeli occupation and the US, that does not absolve Lebanon's sick political establishment of responsibility for people's lives. If Mohammed bin Salman is leading the biggest process of strategic hedging in Saudi history in response to the war, the United Arab Emirates appears unable to settle on a course. It is moving closer to involvement in developments that could cause major damage to its political, economic and security future. Others remain in the waiting room. The wiser among them keep silent. The foolish turn their wishes and delusions into political assessments, as do the figures of Lebanon's US-subservient regime, from Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam to the other forces calling for the complete removal of the idea and capabilities of the Lebanese resistance. Whatever these figures believe about the future of negotiations with the enemy, the Americans themselves, who favor the Washington track and want to keep Lebanon away from the Iran negotiations, have begun speaking differently. But they repeatedly say they cannot pressure Israel before its elections. This strongly suggests that Israeli obstruction, followed by US delay, will prevent the Washington track from producing results. Their only remaining tactic is to shift responsibility onto Hezbollah. Aoun, Salam and the rest of the US-backed camp are carrying out that task. They appear to believe that escalating threats and pressure will force the resistance to surrender its positions. Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem has repeatedly addressed this in his recent speeches. The US-backed camp should instead have dealt differently with the resistance's decision not to enter a confrontation that would break the relative calm now prevailing, even though there are countless reasons for the resistance to resume military operations against the occupation forces and launch an internal campaign to bring down this reckless government. If everyone is forced to wait for the results of the October elections, in both the Israeli occupation and the US, that does not absolve Lebanon's sick political establishment of responsibility for people's lives. Almost two years have passed since the current presidency and government took office, and the country and its institutions continue to collapse. The army is now the only institution still standing, while the US and Israeli agents continue to incite against it and seek to drag it into a confrontation it neither wants nor can afford. The Lebanese army knows the only result would be to plunge Lebanon into the maze of another civil war. This is an edited translation for an article published in Arabic.
