A terrorist attack on a funeral at St. George's Church in the southern Jordanian city of Karak days ago, followed by Jordanian strikes on towns in Syria's southern Daraa province, has highlighted Syria's fragile security situation. Militant groups remain active, and foreign fighters are still present, raising concerns about the risks to Lebanon's security. Lebanon is not immune to the threat from ISIS, which has changed its strategy since the fall of Syria's former government. Instead of seeking to seize and hold territory deep in the Syrian-Iraqi desert, the group now relies on cells spread across Syrian cities and towns. Its fighters blend into local communities and, in some cases, exploit infiltration of the transitional authorities and their military and security agencies. Circumstances surrounding last year's attack on US advisers in Palmyra highlighted this risk. In the final week of September, Lebanese army intelligence arrested an ISIS member in Batroun, northern Lebanon, on suspicion of planning to assassinate Pope Leo XIV during his visit to Lebanon last year. In July, the Internal Security Forces' Information Branch arrested a senior ISIS figure linked to what the group calls its Southern and Central Province. Senior Lebanese security sources say that “Lebanese army intelligence is currently holding several senior ISIS members who are being questioned about plots they intended to carry out in Lebanon.” The sources stress that “despite losing control of territory, the group remains a serious threat to Lebanon's security.” Jordan responded to the Karak attack with strikes on targets inside Syria that killed civilians. Amman said it had run out of patience with the group's activities. Hours earlier, an international coalition airstrike targeted a vehicle carrying Abu Abdul Rahman Al-Libi, a senior figure in Hurras Al-Din, Al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, as he travelled through Qara in the Damascus countryside. He had survived a similar assassination attempt in southern Idlib province in February 2025. Whether Jordan and the international coalition coordinated their strikes with Damascus or acted without its knowledge, the attacks expose Syria's security chaos and the challenges facing its current authorities in combating ISIS and Al-Qaeda. If Damascus coordinated the strikes, the civilian deaths and public backlash in Daraa and elsewhere in Syria would create a political dilemma for the transitional authorities. The attacks came less than a week after forces loyal to transitional President Ahmad Al-Sharaa raided Rankous, in the Qalamoun region near Lebanon's eastern border, killing five people whom the authorities identified as ISIS members. Damascus also faces opposition from hardline factions within its own ranks to joining the international coalition. Coalition strikes have repeatedly targeted figures linked to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and other militant groups. Al-Libi was the latest target. Despite his affiliation with Hurras Al-Din, he is suspected of having worked with Syria's General Security Service. If Jordan acted without coordinating with Damascus, the strikes would suggest that Amman doubts the transitional Syrian authorities can contain ISIS in the south or prevent the group from infiltrating local security agencies. Jordanian forces described the targets as ISIS hideouts, but the strikes hit several towns in Daraa controlled by Al-Sharaa's forces. Al-Libi's killing near Damascus also highlights how easily extremist leaders can operate and exploit the cover of state institutions. Beirut must preserve ties between the two countries without overlooking the security chaos in Syria or the weaknesses of its current administration. The infiltration of the transitional government's institutions poses a direct threat to Lebanon, particularly given recent operations attributed to intelligence agencies linked to Al-Sharaa. These include the abduction of Ali Kayali, also known as Mihrac Ural, from Mansourieh in Mount Lebanon, an area where many Lebanese security and military officers live. Other incidents include the abduction of a Syrian citizen accused of insulting Al-Sharaa and an attempt to abduct former Syrian army general Adel Issa inside the Syrian Embassy. Suspicions have also emerged over the killing of opponents of Syria's new government on Lebanese soil, although details remain unclear. Lebanese security investigations have yet to establish the precise roles of Damascus's intelligence services and Turkish intelligence in Ural's abduction, despite Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claiming responsibility for the operation. Lebanese security sources say that “army intelligence is holding four suspects in the case who have links to extremist groups”. These incidents, along with others that have yet to come to light, present Lebanon's political and security institutions with a growing challenge. They must prepare for the return of threats from extremist groups while managing relations with Syria's transitional authorities carefully. Beirut must preserve ties between the two countries without overlooking the security chaos in Syria or the weaknesses of its current administration. This is an edited translation of a report originally published in Arabic.
