OPEC+ crude output surged in September as Saudi Arabia ramped up production, despite continued disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Iran war, OPEC said in its monthly report on Tuesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2027 to 2.55 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.36 million bpd, citing the need to replenish inventories depleted by war-related supply disruptions. But it cut its demand growth forecast for this year for a sixth straight month, to 180,000 bpd from about 380,000 bpd in its August estimates. OPEC+, which groups OPEC members and allies including Russia, pumped an average of 39.068 million bpd in September, up 903,000 bpd from 38.165 million bpd in August, the report showed. Output has risen by about 1.36 million bpd since July, when it stood at 37.710 million bpd, according to the secondary sources OPEC uses to track production. OPEC members drove the increase, raising output by about 920,000 bpd to 25.097 million bpd from 24.177 million bpd a month earlier. Production by participating non-OPEC countries fell by about 18,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia leads surge Saudi Arabia posted the alliance's largest production increase. Output climbed to 8.372 million bpd in September from 6.238 million bpd in August, a gain of more than 2 million bpd, according to figures the kingdom submitted to OPEC. The increase comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to restore oil flows and strengthen the resilience of its exports against war-related disruptions. Aramco increased oil loadings at Gulf export terminals in September after an attack on the East-West pipeline disrupted shipments through the Red Sea. Inventory rebuilding to support demand OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 2.55 million bpd in 2027 to average 108.3 million bpd, compared with 108.19 million bpd in last month's forecast. The forecast assumes demand growth in 2026 will slow as currently expected, with the need to replenish depleted inventories supporting growth next year, OPEC said. For 2026, the group expects demand growth of just 180,000 bpd. It also cut its fourth-quarter demand estimate to 107.73 million bpd from 107.85 million bpd in last month's report. Demand in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is forecast to shrink by about 210,000 bpd this year, while demand in non-OECD economies is expected to grow by 390,000 bpd. Oil supply from outside OPEC+ is forecast to grow by 640,000 bpd in 2026 and 620,000 bpd in 2027. Russian output declines Russian oil output fell by 38,000 bpd in September to 8.643 million bpd, the report showed, amid continued Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including refineries. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country would trim oil production this year. Russia's Economy Ministry lowered its 2026 output forecast to a 17-year low amid the war with Ukraine. Kazakhstan's production rose by 22,000 bpd in September to 1.851 million bpd, according to the OPEC report.
