Rainfall may improve, but food prices do not necessarily fall. In Lebanon, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates grain production in 2026 at around 160,000 tons, close to the five-year average, following a recovery from the previous year's incidents. However, it anticipates import needs of 1.3 million tons during the 2026/2027 season, approximately 4% above average.
This paradox illustrates why agriculture is a livelihood issue at COP31: protecting local crops is essential, but agriculture operates within a system also shaped by energy, shipping, income, and imports.
The World Bank expects available water per capita in the Middle East and North Africa to fall below the absolute scarcity threshold of 500 cubic meters annually by 2030. This is a regional projection, not a uniform description of every country.
Responses require directing support toward reducing water and crop losses, while improving agricultural guidance, storage, and marketing. Any technology should be assessed according to its suitability for the crop and location, as well as the farmer’s ability to operate and maintain it, rather than treating the purchase of equipment as a success in itself.
For consumers, these investments do not promise immediate price reductions. Their value lies in their potential to reduce losses, mitigate supply fluctuations, and protect producers' incomes. Therefore, effective agricultural financing should be measured by the amount of water saved, the crops preserved, and the income stabilized. By these standards, climate negotiations resemble a grocery bill.
According to an FAO briefing dated August 25, 2026, annual food inflation reached 18% in June, while bread prices increased by 14% and vegetable oil prices by 21% compared with the same month a year earlier. The organization does not attribute these increases solely to climate change; it also points to conflict, displacement, declining incomes, and disrupted livelihoods.
From an economic perspective, water shortages can increase pumping costs or reduce production, while heat adds to the costs of cooling and storage. The extent to which these additional burdens are passed on to consumers depends on competition, import volumes, and the ability of farmers and traders to absorb losses. Therefore, there is no fixed ratio for translating rising temperatures into food price increases.
On October 13, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Council for Development and Reconstruction, and the United Nations Development Programme launched a mechanism to support climate-smart agricultural investments. Grants for individual farmers range from $500 to $5,000, while those for cooperatives and farmers' associations range from $10,000 to $35,000.
Eligible areas include efficient irrigation, renewable energy, greenhouses, storage, and post-harvest facilities, alongside training and business plan preparation. The component implemented by the development programme is valued at $20 million, as part of the GATE project, which is funded through a $200 million loan to Lebanon from the World Bank.
Here, the distribution of costs becomes apparent: eligible beneficiaries receive grants, but the broader financing includes debt incurred by the state. The launch of the mechanism does not mean that grants have been fully distributed or that production savings have already been achieved. Results must be measured after implementation.
