Beyond diplomatic protocol, the Lebanese president’s trip comes amid shifting alliances, Syria’s new reality and Ankara’s bid to deepen its influence in Beirut.
One of the very rare occurrences in the history of relations between countries, is for the president of one country to officially visit the capital of another country less than two weeks after the prime minister of that republic visited the same capital. This means that President Joseph Aoun's visit to Ankara, tentatively scheduled for Thursday, acquires a special significance that goes beyond the protocol of international relations and presidential visits. It is intensely political and falls within the context of an ambitious project that has taken on an urgent nature for the host country and the inviter.
Noureldin told Annahar that Aoun's visit to Turkey, "if we read its background and the circumstances in which it is taking place, is not ordinary in its dimensions. Rather, it falls within the framework of the ambitious and far-reaching political equation that Ankara has been seeking for some time to impose in the wake of the transformations, especially with the current rule in Damascus, whose point of reference and main backer is undoubtedly Ankara.”
He adds, "Aoun's invitation to Ankara after the Prime Minister's visit there is related to the evolving discussion on the required Syrian role deep within Lebanon to overturn previous equations and impose different ones. Therefore, Aoun is certainly heading to Ankara to listen to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's visions regarding his real stance on the persistent American demand for al-Sharaa to play a role in confronting 'Hezbollah.' This will allow him to act accordingly, especially since he has so far remained silent concerning this repeated American demand, which has gone beyond being merely a passing statement by Trump."
Since Aoun, according to Noureldin, appreciates the extent of the Turkish influence over Syria's rulers, he will investigate during his visit to determine Turkey's position on this troubling invitation and whether they are distanced from it.
He concludes, "We acknowledge Erdoğan's skill in calculations and assessments. He understands the repercussions of such a decision (Syria's entry) and knows Iran's opposition to such a step, just as he realizes that the Sunni arena in Lebanon does not ally with him but historically and presently with Saudi Arabia."
It is no secret that since two significant developments in Lebanon occurred, the first being the racing of forces to fill a void perceived by some as being filled by the Iranian presence, and the second being the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, an ally of Tehran, and the rise of Ankara's allies to power in its place, the Turkish government has gradually revealed its implicit desire to expand its influence into the Lebanese realm, or at least establish a foothold there, as a natural extension of its expansion in the Syrian arena.
Since then, the concerned circles in Beirut have been buzzing with record meetings held away from spotlight between Turkish circles with Lebanese forces, most of them from the Sunni sect, in addition to unseen relations with Hezbollah that the party found beneficial to bring to light. What's notable is that Ankara always ensures that its presence remains smooth and not framed as challenging to others, acknowledging the complexities of the arena and the struggles for influence within.
Aoun's visit to Ankara may appear to be part of a intensive political movement he embarked on a while ago that culminated with his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. He made sure to show alignment with the Arab-international axis, of which Turkey is a major component, especially since he immersed himself in this axis and did not leave room for reversal. Therefore, some affirm there is another objective for Aoun's forthcoming visit: to calm the "Turkish anger" which openly opposed to the maritime border agreement signed by Beirut with Cyprus, disregarding Turkey's interests entirely. Thus, Turkey, which knows this weak point of Lebanon, wants to capitalize on it and build a comprehensive relationship with all ruling components in Lebanon, particularly since this country is geographically and historically intertwined with Syria, whose reference now is Ankara and its leadership, in one form or another.
Therefore, Ankara, aware of Lebanon's sensitivities and the complexities of its formation, does not object at all to the return of Syrian presence to the Lebanese equation that is currently take shape, especially given there was a previous experience that time hasn't erased.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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