Following the Israeli elections, the region is likely to face further turmoil, as Israel’s domestic political landscape is heading, under all possible scenarios, toward a security-driven course that will have repercussions for political developments and confrontations across the Middle East. In reality, whether Netanyahu forms a government or fails to do so, he will remain the decisive decision-maker and will seek to carry his project forward by continuing his war against Iran, unless developments open the door to a political settlement.
Lebanon appears to be one of the countries in the region most affected by Israel’s next moves, particularly regarding its plans for the occupied south and its conditions for negotiations. This will unfold alongside continued US pressure on the Lebanese state, whether Trump wins or loses the midterm elections.
Lebanon will remain at the heart of the storm and on the front lines of danger for a long time to come, awaiting the outcome of the US-Iranian confrontation and whether the course of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel will change after the elections, as well as the repercussions of all these developments on the situation in Lebanon. This comes amid growing domestic divisions that have begun to take different directions following the discovery of Hezbollah’s explosives and the renewed debate over the decision to bring all weapons under state control. Meanwhile, attention remains focused on what the party might do if war breaks out.
Everything being said about Hezbollah’s position and its pledges not to come to Tehran’s aid and to avoid an all-out confrontation could be swept aside if a regional war erupts. The party is undoubtedly committed to supporting Iran if it comes under major attacks, as its secretary-general and several party officials have stated on multiple occasions. According to their own narrative, these statements anticipated Israel’s move to launch a war aimed at eliminating the resistance.
This is the same narrative the party put forward when it came to Iran’s aid in early March 2026. Hezbollah is aware that its involvement in a potential war, or even its launching of pre-emptive operations against the occupation, would prompt Israel to carry out its threats of waging a full-scale war on Lebanon and imposing a new security reality in the south. This is what happened in the previous war, when Israel occupied an area of at least 650 square kilometers and destroyed entire villages. This time, the war could be even more destructive, affecting areas south and north of the Litani River and extending to Beirut’s southern suburbs and the capital itself.
Hezbollah’s public declarations that it is rebuilding its capabilities and preparing for confrontation reflect its decision to come to Iran’s aid if war breaks out. They do not necessarily mean that the party is considering how to end the occupation of the south, as its calculations remain unchanged from those it held before October 8, 2023. Meanwhile, its weapons have been diverted from their role in resisting Israel toward regional objectives. The party has not taken the initiative to assist the state, or at least support its efforts to strengthen its negotiating position and remove the pretexts used by the occupation. Nor has it helped ease the mounting pressure on the authorities to take decisive measures to disarm it, even if doing so leads to internal clashes.
The challenges are considerable at this critical juncture for the region. What lies ahead will leave the Lebanese state caught between its ability to assert its sovereignty and US pressure, which seeks, whether through negotiations or direct action, to push toward security arrangements with Israel, ultimately leading to a peace agreement.
Lebanon faces dangers not only from the outbreak of a regional war but also from the continuation of the status quo, with pressure expected to persist after the Israeli elections amid security and political conditions. Through its actions, Hezbollah is contributing to exposing Lebanon to further isolation and sanctions. All indications suggest that Israel’s security demands regarding Lebanon will remain unchanged, while the prospect of confrontation with Iran will continue to weigh heavily on the country. This presents the Lebanese state with the challenge of overcoming its domestic impasse, protecting Lebanon and rescuing it from the flames engulfing the region. Hezbollah, for its part, must abandon its calculations, dependency and deadly illusions.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar
