Iranian Discontent Heightens Cross-Border Threat to Syria, Experts Say

Syrian authorities' announcement late Friday that they had foiled a major drug-smuggling operation from Lebanon in the Serghaya area of rural Damascus drew attention for one particular reason: the operation was handled by Defense Ministry troops rather than internal security forces, security expert Diaa Qaddour told Asharq Al-Awsat. Another military analyst linked the growing tensions along Syria's borders with Lebanon and Iraq to Iran's dissatisfaction with the Syrian government. The Defense Ministry's Media and Communications Department said border guards had intercepted an attempt to smuggle narcotics into Syria from Lebanon near Serghaya, along the border in the Damascus countryside. The smugglers opened fire on the patrol, prompting troops to return fire and forcing the gunmen to retreat into Lebanese territory, the ministry said. According to Syria's Internal Security Forces, the authorities seized 280 kilograms of hashish and 28,000 Captagon pills. The incident followed extensive raids carried out by the Lebanese Army on November 4 in the rugged outskirts of Arsal, which led to the arrest of suspected smugglers and the interception of vehicles attempting to cross the border illegally. It also came days after Syrian authorities arrested members of a cell allegedly plotting an attack on the Homs oil refinery. Damascus accused the cell of having ties to Lebanon's Hezbollah, an allegation the group denied. Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Qaddour accused Hezbollah of stepping up what he described as terrorist activities inside Syria, including attacks targeting sensitive sites. He warned that the border region had become extremely volatile, with tensions liable to escalate at any moment, requiring Syrian security forces to remain on constant alert. Damascus has been working to strengthen security cooperation with neighboring countries in an effort to close illegal border crossings and dismantle cross-border smuggling networks. Security coordination topped the agenda during Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi's visit to Damascus on October 28, when he led a high-level ministerial delegation. Border control was also a priority in talks between the Syrian government and a Lebanese delegation headed by Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri, which visited Damascus on November 2. Since the start of the country's liberation, Damascus has sought to reassure its neighbors by tightening border controls and reopening crossings in ways that benefit both sides economically. Military affairs analyst Rashid Hourani described the approach as "border-crossing diplomacy." Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Hourani said Damascus had sought to resolve its disputes with neighboring countries by securing its borders and ensuring they posed no threat to Syria or its neighbors. But developments along the Syrian-Lebanese and Syrian-Iraqi borders, he argued, point to growing Iranian frustration with Damascus. He attributed Tehran's displeasure partly to Syria's success in tightening border security and partly to recent discussions about its possible participation in the Makkah Agreement, alongside an announcement that Damascus would provide Saudi Arabia with military expertise to confront the Houthis, Iran's ally in Yemen. "Iran therefore sought to cause trouble for Syria and instructed Hezbollah, whose regional influence has diminished, to stir up tensions along the Syrian border," Hourani said. He argued that a similar dynamic was at play along the Iraqi border, where Iranian-backed militias exert considerable influence over decision-making within the country's military and security institutions. Securing Syria's borders remains one of the most pressing security challenges facing Damascus. Qaddour assessed the threat entering Syria across its borders as "moderate to high in the near term," although he said it could still be contained if current security efforts were sustained. He identified the border with Lebanon as particularly vulnerable because of its rugged terrain and numerous illegal crossings. The Iraqi border, by contrast, has seen substantial fortification through the construction of walls and trenches, while active security coordination with Jordan has helped authorities intercept major smuggling shipments. Hourani also pointed to Syria and Jordan's participation in an anti-ISIS alliance established in March 2025 alongside Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon. He said their membership in the coalition made it likely that the two countries would overcome the fallout from a Jordanian military operation in Syria's Daraa Governorate, where an operational error resulted in civilian casualties. Meanwhile, recent developments have underscored the growing security threat along the Syrian-Lebanese border, with successive operations exposing what analysts describe as coordinated attempts to destabilize Syria. Qaddour said drug trafficking remained the most serious threat, with evidence pointing to longstanding links between smuggling networks, elements of Syria's former regime and Hezbollah. He also warned of an increasingly troubling development: smuggling cartels resorting to armed resistance against security forces. The latest incident, in which smugglers exchanged fire with Syrian troops before fleeing into Lebanon, illustrated the growing danger, he said. Qaddour argued that the situation demanded more than routine security coordination. He called for tighter joint control over illegal crossings, expanded intelligence sharing and a systematic crackdown on cross-border criminal networks. He also raised the possibility of urgent operations at particularly vulnerable points along the Lebanese border, warning that failure to close these security gaps could turn them into a persistent source of instability for both countries.