Americans want to eat, drink, access healthcare, and work. The rest of the world wants to know what will happen to it and how much it will have to pay. This is how both sides interpreted the same outcome in the US midterm elections. Voters held Donald Trump accountable for the cost of his policies over the past two years, while capitals around the world began calculating what his decisions might cost them over the next two.
The objectives of the war against Iran were at the bottom of the American voter's list of priorities. Its immediate costs, however, were at the top. Voters had to fill their car tanks to get to work, then calculate how much of their paychecks remained to buy food and cover medical bills. On election day, gasoline and diesel prices reached their highest levels ever recorded on the day of a US election, according to GasBuddy data. In exit polls, nearly nine in ten voters said the cost of living was a decisive or major factor in their voting decisions.
In Kansas, Don Teske, president of the state's Farmers Union, explained how rising diesel prices affect not only tractors and harvesters but also the trucks that transport goods and household budgets at the gas station. After the results were announced, Trump acknowledged that the war had contributed to the defeat because it had pushed gasoline prices up "a little in the short term," as he put it. The striking word here is "a little." This is how the president characterizes an increase that voters have to pay every time they need to fill their tanks.
Abroad, the priorities were reversed. Ukraine is wondering whether a Democratic majority will make US support less unpredictable. It has good reason to ask. In March 2025, the Trump administration suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv, resuming both after talks in Jeddah. In Europe, meanwhile, relief over the Republican defeat took on a different dimension. Just weeks earlier, Vice President JD Vance had stood in Munich and declared that what worried him was the "threat from within" Europe. This helps explain some of the relief in France. Republicans had wanted to export a wave of the radical right beyond their borders, only to lose at home.
Tehran, Israel, and the Gulf: Assessing the Stakes
In Tehran, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf summed up his reading of the results by saying that "Americans said no to war." But the "no" heard in Tehran came from an America whose calculations begin with the price of gasoline. This difference brings the question back to the White House: Does Trump see the electoral punishment as a reason to pursue negotiations or as an incentive to resume the war? Israel's assessment of the room it has to maneuver, as well as Gulf countries' calculations of how much they might have to endure if tensions escalate again, will depend in part on the answer.
This is where domestic and international frustration with Trump converge. He rushes into risky moves, then hesitates when their costs become apparent. He threatens escalation, then backs down after others have already acted on the assumption that he intends to follow through. American voters were able to hold him accountable at the ballot box. The countries affected by his decisions, however, must find a way to deal with him once the polls have closed.
By winning control of Congress, Democrats have given Americans the means to narrow the president's room for maneuver. Yet foreign capitals have reason to exercise caution before placing their bets on them. Just two years ago, Democrats were in power, and hesitation in handling major issues was a defining feature of their administration. Their failure to convince Americans that they deserved to remain in office paved the way for Trump's return to the White House.
Americans have settled the score over the past two years. But the capitals that welcomed the result are still waiting for an answer to the question facing the next two years: What will Trump do with the powers and room for maneuver he still has?
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar
