Yemen’s future hinges on current developments in Iran-Gulf conflict

What is at stake is not limited to Yemen's future or the Iranian presence in Yemen. It involves using this presence to threaten entire Gulf security, reaching the Suez Canal.

Yemen awaits decisive days after Iran decided to take control of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by laying its hands on Yemen's Mocha port. Iran is using the Houthis, who call themselves "Ansar Allah" in reference to "Hezbollah" in Lebanon, to achieve this goal.

It's no secret that Hezbollah played a pivotal role, especially through training, establishing communication networks, and setting up a satellite station in Beirut, in turning the Houthis in Yemen into a mere tool for the "Islamic Republic." This has turned North Yemen into a base for Iranian missiles and drones in the Arabian Peninsula, posing a threat to every Gulf Arab state.

The "Islamic Republic" seems in dire need of such a breakthrough, in Mocha, to assert that not only can it control navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but it can also control the entrance to the Red Sea.

This simply means controlling navigation toward the Suez Canal. Any ship wishing to pass through the Suez Canal must go through Bab al-Mandeb, where the Mocha port is on the Yemeni side.

The Houthis execute Iranian instructions wholeheartedly and without hesitation. They sent large forces into the Mocha port battle, which they controlled briefly after entering Sanaa on September 21, 2014, turning it into another Arab capital under Tehran's control.

It is well known who ousted the Houthis from Mocha, and before that, from Aden itself and other southern areas. There were forces, supported by the UAE, that played a crucial role in driving the Houthis back in different parts of Yemen, particularly in the southern provinces.

The Houthis' focus on Mocha is evident, starting with military advances in the mountainous Taiz region, where "Ansar Allah" already has a foothold. The Houthis attack specific points in Taiz Governorate aiming to encircle Mocha, making it vulnerable militarily. The Houthis rely, among other things, on the absence of a cohesive front standing against them on Yemeni soil.

There is no longer much enthusiasm among southern factions and others who helped reclaim Mocha to confront the Houthis. There is no need now to open files that Yemen can do without reopening. However, it is useful to note that at a certain point, the forces that retook Mocha from the Houthis, along with other forces, were on the verge of expelling the Houthis from Al Hudaydah.

That was in early 2018 when American and British international interventions prevented the Houthis from being expelled from Al Hudaydah. The day will come when the mysteries of the insistence, expressed by some international circles, to keep the Houthis in Al Hudaydah, Yemen's largest port on the Red Sea, will be revealed.

It can be said that the current situation in Taiz is one of tug of war. The Houthis make advances in certain areas and retreat in others, incurring heavy losses as happened in Al Jawf, far from Taiz. But clearly, there is a greater need than ever for coordination between the forces opposing the Houthis, which are supposed to be under the command of "legitimacy" led by Dr. Rashad Al-Alimi. In the end, there is no benefit in our days from any disputes among forces working to prevent Iran from reaching Mocha.

Better coordination is not only required among the forces loyal to or affiliated with the Yemeni "legitimacy." More than ever, Arab, specifically Gulf, coordination seems necessary concerning Yemen. Not for anything other than because what's at stake is very significant.

What's at stake is not limited to Yemen's future nor to the Iranian presence in Yemen. It involves the "Islamic Republic" using this presence to threaten Gulf security as a whole and even to threaten the Suez Canal and its activities.

This comes at a time when a clear American strategy to confront Iran, which did not hesitate to bombard several Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, at one point, is absent. In the absence of a clear American strategy, why not have a Gulf Arab strategy, including the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which is itself subjected to successive Iranian attacks?

What's happening in Taiz province is not only a test for Yemeni "legitimacy" but also an Arab and Gulf test, especially since the "Islamic Republic" did not hesitate to use Yemen to blackmail every country in the region, eventually seeking to directly link its control of the Strait of Hormuz with its efforts to control the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.

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