Would-Be Challenger to UK PM Faces Uphill Battle in Key Vote

Makerfield, a little-known political district in northwest England, has been thrust into the spotlight in the UK ahead of a by-election dubbed one of the most consequential in British history. The June 18 vote could prompt embattled Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s downfall, as the main potential rival to replace him bids to win a parliamentary seat and pave the way for a leadership challenge. Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, a veteran figure on Labour’s left, has stopped short of formally announcing his intention to oust Starmer. But the 56-year-old is widely expected to trigger a contest to become Labour leader — which would mean also becoming prime minister — if he is made an MP. “A vote for me in this by-election campaign is a vote to change Labour,” he said Friday, officially launching his campaign in the constituency, which lies between Manchester and Liverpool. Addressing placard-wielding supporters in a dusty sports club’s car park, he argued the party must return to being “solidly on the side of working-class people”. In a nearby residential street of red-brick terraced houses, the scale of the challenge was apparent. “I’ve lost all faith in Labour at the minute, so whether it’s Keir Starmer or Andy Burnham, I think they’re done,” self-employed joiner Mick Dean, 44, told AFP. “My dad was a Labour voter. His dad would actually turn over in his grave if he found out we’ve moved on, but they’re just not for the working class anymore.” – ‘Definitely not! ‘ – Dean will vote for Brexit champion Nigel Farage’s anti-immigration Reform UK party, which triumphed in local elections across England this month. The disastrous results for Labour — which came a distant second and sustained heavy losses in Wales and Scotland — sparked a simmering Labour rebellion against Starmer. The by-election was triggered when Makerfield’s MP resigned after the polls, saying he wanted to give Burnham the chance to win the seat and challenge Starmer. But Burnham’s attempted Westminster return — he was a Labour MP between 2001 and 2017, served in governments and twice stood to be leader — is fraught. Once a safe Labour seat held since 1983, Makerfield overwhelmingly backed Reform in the May 7 local council vote. A repeat in next month’s by-election would leave Burnham’s Downing Street ambitions in tatters and Starmer’s political future uncertain. Supporters such as Labour member Tom Hothersall, 22, insisted “there’s a lot of love” for Burnham after nine widely praised years as Manchester mayor. “He’s got a vision for where he wants to take the country and he wants to take Makerfield with him,” he said. When AFP joined a seven-strong canvassing team on Friday, voters’ opinions were divided. “I know him and I’m obviously going to back him!” said one man. His neighbor was less enthused. “Definitely not! I don’t want him in. I don’t want Labour in,” she told the canvasser. – ‘Using us’ – Burnham is banking on his regional popularity to prevail. Born in Liverpool, he previously represented a neighboring parliamentary seat and is eager to talk up his local roots. Home to nearly 80,000 people, Makerfield sits in Labour’s traditional “red wall” former industrial heartlands increasingly deserting the party. Less ethnically diverse than some surrounding constituencies, its heritage in mining — rather than textiles, which helped Manchester boom during the industrial revolution — also sets it apart from the city. Burnham allies argue if he can beat Reform here, he will have made his case to replace the universally unpopular Starmer. In the main town of Ashton-in-Makerfield, Reform placards and English St George’s flags compete with the occasional Labour sign. “He’s using us,” said retiree Michael Rowlands, who plans to vote Reform. “Once he’s got what he wants to get, to Number 10 (Downing Street)… we’ll be forgotten.” Neighbor Marilyn Hurst, 70, was also minded to back Farage’s party. “He should stay as the mayor of Manchester because I don’t think he’s got that personality to be a prime minister,” she said of Burnham. Reform’s candidate, local plumber Robert Kenyon, also unsuccessfully stood to be MP in 2024 elections that swept Labour to power. He has become embroiled in controversy after allegations his X account contained offensive posts, as well as claims that he interacted online with a well-known far-right influencer. Reform, which did not respond to requests to interview Kenyon or attend a campaign event, has reportedly said it does not plan to probe the claims.