Could the “alternative routes” initiative unveiled by US special envoy to Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack position Syria as a stable regional transit hub rather than a theater of conflict? And could it gradually transform the country from a recipient of aid and political backing into a provider of strategic services to global markets? The United States is working with five regional countries, including Syria, on a strategic program to develop alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz based on the concept of “precautionary delivery,” Barrack recently revealed. He noted that sweeping geopolitical shifts across the region had reshaped security and strategic alliances, redirecting regional and international attention from the Iranian nuclear file to the Strait of Hormuz. The political dividends for Syria could be “enormous,” according to Osama al-Kadi, senior economic adviser at Syria’s Ministry of Economy. He argued that Arab countries and Türkiye, with US backing, broadly agree that “Syria will be the strategic choice for the stability of the region and the stability of global oil and gas supplies.” The initiative, he said, would integrate Syria into the framework of regional and global interests “not as part of the conflict, but as a country of transit and stability.” Those gains would grow as larger volumes of oil, gas and trade pass through Syrian territory, tying the interests of Arab states, Türkiye and Europe more closely to Syria’s stability. Abdul Wahab Asi, a Syrian researcher, argued that the political cost of destabilizing Syria would rise sharply if the project moves forward. Any attack on Syrian infrastructure, he said, would no longer concern only Syria and Israel but would also affect US and Western interests. While the initiative would not directly pressure Israel, it would increase the cost of undermining stability in Syria. Asi added that the project does not necessarily require peace with Israel because the proposed route does not pass through southern Syria. Politically and economically, however, it does require a stable security environment, making an understanding with Israel an important factor. In his view, this helps explain Washington’s recent request that Israel withdraw from southern Syria. The initiative would also make Syria a key player in regional energy security by allowing a significant share of Iraqi oil exports to reach the Mediterranean through Syrian territory, making Syria’s stability a direct interest for Iraq, the United States, European countries and major energy companies. Asi further argued that the project would gradually shift Syria from a country dependent on aid and political protection to one providing strategic services to global markets. It would also create enduring US economic interests in Syria through Chevron and other American companies involved in a corridor extending to the Syrian coast. That, he said, could help ensure sanctions remain lifted, reduce Syria’s investment risk profile, and facilitate international guarantees and financing. Economically, the project would require rehabilitating the Baniyas port, pumping stations, storage facilities, refinery and domestic pipeline network, enabling Syria to generate substantial transit revenues to support economic recovery and reconstruction. Al-Qadi also linked the initiative to Syria’s Four Seas Initiative, which envisions connecting the Mediterranean, the Arabian Gulf, the Caspian Sea and the Black Sea. He described it as effectively the same as his proposed “Four Plus One” project, in which the “plus one” refers to a planned high-speed railway linking Türkiye and Saudi Arabia through Syria and Jordan. The broader vision also includes reviving the Tapline pipeline from Saudi Arabia to Baniyas, a Qatar-Türkiye gas pipeline through Syria with a branch to Baniyas for gas exports, and expanding the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline from its pre-1980s capacity of 300,000 barrels per day to 2 million, and eventually 3 million, barrels per day. According to al-Qadi, if fully implemented, the project could reduce the share of global trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz to less than 5 percent by 2035.
