With the US effectively out of its military war with Iran, Washington has stepped back from direct confrontation and taken Israel with it, leaving Gulf states to deal with the fallout. One after another, and under clear US pressure, they are becoming involved in disputes with their neighbor. These disputes have now taken the form of an intense economic war, apparently aimed at achieving what months of direct military conflict failed to accomplish. Washington began pursuing this strategy after the June 18 signing of a memorandum of understanding with Tehran, which it opposed. It pressured Oman to open the southern passage of the Strait of Hormuz along its coast, seeking to strip Iran of any gains from the failed war to overthrow its government or force a change in its behavior. Instead, the war strengthened Tehran and hardened its position. Oman had little choice but to comply, but the move created tensions with Tehran. The result was ultimately the closure of the passage by force. Washington then encouraged Saudi Arabia to reignite the war with Sanaa. Although the latter initiated a blockade of the kingdom, Yemen views it as a natural consequence of the Saudi blockade backed by Washington. From the Yemeni perspective, the current war aims to prevent Ansar Allah from using the Bab Al-Mandab Strait to pressure global oil supplies, either to demand an end to the blockade or as part of the wider regional conflict. The strongest blow, however, came from the UAE, which recently announced the suspension of all trade and financial dealings with Iran until further notice, alongside measures targeting Iranian residents. Tehran viewed the move as a dangerous escalation and accused Abu Dhabi of following Washington and Tel Aviv in their aggression against Iran. All of this comes alongside the Mecca Pact which Washington wants to develop into a counterweight to Iran in the postwar Gulf and hopes to expand by bringing in Egypt and other countries. Washington is unlikely to accept that the price of ending the war with Tehran is losing everything it believes it has achieved since October 7, and more. The US has effectively withdrawn from its failed war and returned to its traditional pressure tactics, but with greater reliance on regional states. It has also removed Israel from the equation after its presence became a direct factor in the war’s failure. The renewed “maximum pressure” campaign now appears to be part of a war of attrition that Washington sees as its only option short of accepting defeat. One factor encouraging it may be its apparent success in containing oil prices. They remain high, but below $100 a barrel, levels US officials believe they can tolerate until the congressional midterm elections, especially with direct escalation in the Gulf reduced and consumers gradually adapting to higher prices. But has Washington abandoned its broader plans to dominate the region through several tracks, including controlled Israeli expansion and stronger ties with major regional powers such as Türkiye and Pakistan? The current confrontation is unlikely to last long. Gulf states cannot sustain such a conflict economically or militarily, especially when no one knows how Iran will respond. Saudi Arabia may soon face mounting pressure over the war with Yemen, while the UAE could pay a heavy price for its measures against Iran. After this temporary confrontation, which could continue through the congressional midterms and Israeli elections, other options are likely to reopen, whether through a settlement or another war. Washington is unlikely to accept that the price of ending the war with Tehran is losing everything it believes it has achieved since October 7, and more. This is an edited translation for an article published in Arabic.
