The food security outlook for Yemen through the end of 2026 remains highly alarming, with 53% of the population projected to face crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase3+), a UN agency warned this week. In its Yemen Market and Trade Bulletin, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Yemen currently bears the world’s highest burden of populations trapped in the severe acute food insecurity classification (IPC Phase 4), a global early-warning indicator that the country is on the verge of famine, requiring urgent humanitarian intervention to prevent mass starvation. Also, FAO said the presence of isolated pockets of extreme food insecurity conditions are already emerging. “Yemen's structural food system collapse is driven by a critical convergence of localized instability, severe funding shortfalls (only above 14% funded as of June), and regional geopolitical shocks,” the FAO report warned. It said although the intense conflict is likely to ease, regional disruptions and its lingering impacts are expected to continue for some time to come. FAO affirmed that protracted trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and volatile fuel costs will continue to exert upward pressure on domestic transport, food, and agricultural inputs. “Without immediate, multi-year funding and the full restoration of humanitarian access, a slide into extreme food insecurity situation remains a risk,” the UN agency said. Economic Fragility FAO said that in May 2026, the Yemeni rial in government-controlled areas held stable month-on-month at 1,553 riyal per US dollar representing a notable 63% year-on-year strengthening. It said while this stability temporarily buffers local markets and lowers imported food costs, the fiscal situation remains highly fragile due to critically depleted foreign reserves and high exposure to global market shocks. The UN agency also found that the Minimum Food Basket (MFB) rose 2% month-on-month, though it remains 27% lower year-on-year and 9% below the three-year average. However, household food access is still severely constrained by weak purchasing power, irregular salaries, scarce income opportunities, and the lingering effects of inflation. Fuel costs surged 11 to 15% month-on-month in May, tracking 10–21% above three-year averages despite remaining 5–11% lower year-on-year. FAO said this sharp uptick is renewing severe financial pressure across transport, food distribution, milling, agricultural inputs, water trucking, electricity generation, and overall household expenses. In return, labor trends were mixed in May. “Agricultural wages rose 3% month-on-month and remained 19% above the three-year average, while non-agricultural casual wages dipped 2% month-on-month and stayed 11% below May 2025 levels,” the agency’s report found. “This indicates strong seasonal support for farm labor but persistent weakness in broader income opportunities,” it added. And while staple food prices remained broadly stable in May, FAO said rising fuel, transport, shipping, and global commodity costs threaten to renew upward pressure. Decrease of Wheat Imports FAO said wheat and flour imports fell 28% month-on-month but remained 22% higher year-on-year. It noted that while fuel imports more than doubled from April, they were still 68% below May 2025 levels and 63% below the three-year average, signaling a partial recovery rather than supply normalization. Meanwhile, Terms of Trade (ToT) improved for agricultural laborers and livestock owners but weakened for casual laborers. The report said month-on-month, agricultural labor-to-cereal ToT rose by about 2%, goat-to-cereal by 6%, and sheep-to-cereal by 9%, while off-farm labor-to-cereal ToT fell by about 3%. Although all indicators remain above May 2025 and three-year averages, the positive welfare impact is limited for households lacking regular work, stable income, market access, or livestock assets. The UN agency also showed that driven by pre-Eid demand and higher transport costs, livestock prices increased by 7–10% month-on-month in May. “While prices remained 10–13% below May 2025 levels, they tracking 17–19% above the three-year average, keeping meat expensive for consumers but improving sale returns for livestock-owning households,” it said. The report concluded that the presence of a dual exchange rate regime in Yemen, governed separately by Houthi-held areas and those under the government-controlled areas, led to a noticeable disparity in food prices. It said although prices in government-controlled areas might appear to be 'twice as high as in Houthi-held areas' in local currency, the prices when converted to US dollars are nearly equivalent, and at times slightly higher in Houthi-held areas.
