Turkish consumer price inflation surged to 4.18% month-on-month in April, while the annual figure climbed to 32.37%, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday, with both measures exceeding economists' forecasts. In a Reuters poll, monthly inflation was forecast to be 3.28%, with the annual rate seen at 31.25%, as the Iran war drives a sharp rise in fuel prices and expectations of a slower-than-anticipated disinflation trend. The biggest monthly price rises in April were shown by the clothing and footwear sector, with 8.94% inflation, and the housing sector at 7.99%, while key transport sector prices were up 4.29% and food and drinks sector prices were up 3.7%. In March, consumer price inflation dipped to 1.94% month-on-month, while the annual figure fell to 30.87%, both figures below forecasts. The data also showed the domestic producer index rose 3.17% month-on-month in April for an annual increase of 28.59%. The central bank flagged rising inflation risks in its monetary policy committee statement last month, when it kept main interest rates steady, saying it was closely monitoring fallout from the Iran war and potential second-round effects. In February, Türkiye's central bank raised its year-end inflation forecast range by two percentage points to 15–21%, while keeping its interim 16% target unchanged, despite market doubts over whether the disinflation trend seen through much of 2025 remains on track.
