Turkish Inflation Jumps to 4.18% m/m in April, Exceeding Forecasts

Turkish consumer price inflation surged to 4.18% month-on-month in April, while the annual figure climbed to 32.37%, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday, with both measures exceeding economists’ forecasts. In a Reuters poll, monthly inflation was forecast to be 3.28%, with the annual rate seen at 31.25%, as the Iran war drives ‌a sharp ‌rise in fuel prices and ‌expectations ⁠of a slower-than-anticipated disinflation ⁠trend. The biggest monthly price rises in April were shown by the clothing and footwear sector, with 8.94% inflation, and the housing sector at 7.99%, while key transport sector prices were up 4.29% and ⁠food and drinks sector prices ‌were up 3.7%. In ‌March, consumer price inflation dipped to 1.94% month-on-month, ‌while the annual figure fell to ‌30.87%, both figures below forecasts. The data also showed the domestic producer index rose 3.17% month-on-month in April for an annual increase of 28.59%. The ‌central bank flagged rising inflation risks in its monetary policy committee ⁠statement ⁠last month, when it kept main interest rates steady, saying it was closely monitoring fallout from the Iran war and potential second-round effects. In February, Türkiye’s central bank raised its year-end inflation forecast range by two percentage points to 15–21%, while keeping its interim 16% target unchanged, despite market doubts over whether the disinflation trend seen through much of 2025 remains on track.