Trump’s Iran war: Hormuz, oil and the risk of a wider global crisis

From the Strait of Hormuz to Venezuelan oil and Europe’s Patriot missile shortages, Washington faces mounting challenges as the war enters its seventh month.

Tehran, after announcing that it had reached an agreement with the Sultanate of Oman to open a new shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, was quick to stress that the agreement is separate from any decision by the Iranian government to open the strait to commercial vessels.

It also stressed that no such decision would be taken before the United States meets a series of other Iranian demands related to ending the war, paying compensation, lifting sanctions, and releasing frozen funds.

The United States, for its part, has for some time pursued a policy centered on asserting that the strait is open to navigation and that the US Navy is the force exercising control over it. US President Donald Trump insists on regarding it as a “new U.S. territory.” To substantiate this narrative, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that 130 million barrels of oil had passed through the strait over the past two weeks.

Iranian authorities denied this, reiterating that the strait remains under their absolute control. Maritime tracking companies have also questioned the US figures, pointing out that traffic remains at low levels compared with the 130 vessels that passed through the strait daily before the war that began on February 28.

A lady walks past an anti-American mural and pictures of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in Islamic Revolution Street in central Tehran, on August 29, 2026. (AP)

Amid the intensifying tensions over Hormuz, Trump on Saturday added a new source of pressure to the economic war he is waging against Iran. He announced what he called the “largest oil deal in the world” with Venezuela, allowing the United States to exploit 65 billion barrels of the country’s reserves.

The announcement came nine months after “Operation Absolute Resolve,” carried out by US special forces and ending with the abduction of former President Nicolás Maduro and his replacement by his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who temporarily assumed the presidency.

Concluding the Venezuelan deal at this particular time sends a reassuring message to global markets and could also ease concerns at home, just over two months before the midterm elections. Voters are increasingly dissatisfied with persistently high inflation, driven by several factors, including the war with Iran. US investments in the Venezuelan deal are estimated at more than $200 billion over 25 years.

It is worth noting that the ease with which the “change” in Venezuela’s political system was achieved was among the factors that encouraged Trump to go to war with Iran, in the hope of repeating that experience. But the war, which was initially expected to last six weeks, has now entered its seventh month, with no signs of a resolution on the horizon.

A cargo ship docks at La Guaira port in Venezuela, on August 22, 2026. (AFP)

In fact, Trump’s efforts are not limited to the oil front. At the same time, he is seeking to limit any impact of the war with Iran on the international balance of power, particularly in Europe.

Details have begun to emerge about the urgent mission undertaken by CIA Director John Ratcliffe in Moscow last week. According to a report by the US newspaper The Wall Street Journal, Ratcliffe was tasked with asking the Kremlin not to exploit the shortage of US ammunition and forces in Europe resulting from the war with Iran to launch attacks on NATO member states.

The shortage of US Patriot missiles in recent weeks has caused heavy losses to energy facilities, ammunition depots, and ports in Ukraine, as Russian missiles and drones are no longer being met with sufficient Ukrainian air defenses. European countries have complained about delays by the United States in delivering batches of Patriot missiles they had requested for Ukraine.

This imbalance in Ukraine has fueled speculation that Russian President Vladimir Putin could exploit the situation and expand his war toward NATO countries supporting Kyiv with weapons and funding.

Thus, Trump appears to be facing a number of challenges because of the war with Iran, including keeping oil prices below $100 as much as possible, while also preventing Russia and China from taking advantage of the shortage of US ammunition and imposing new international equations.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.

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