Axios reports that President Trump called off new U.S. military strikes on Iran Friday night, signaling a potential diplomatic offramp after nearly two weeks of tit-for-tat attacks. People familiar with the decision told the outlet that the pause coincided with the arrival of Omani officials in Tehran for negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Why the Trump administration is likely finding the offramp (again) ... •Gas Prices Nearing Levels That Could Push Trump Towards Iran Talks, Says JPM Commodities Expert JPMorgan’s head of Global Commodities Research and Strategy, Natasha Kaneva, told clients: “In the previous round of escalations, negotiations were initiated once US gasoline prices reached $4.20 and became materially more urgent as prices neared $4.50. Oil may be a global commodity, but political tolerance for high energy prices remains overwhelmingly domestic.” Brent crude surged 27% over two weeks to settle at $96.78 a barrel on Friday, briefly breaching $100 this past week as traders priced in a higher war-risk premium into energy markets amid simultaneous chokepoint threats to the Strait of Hormuz and the southern Red Sea. Meanwhile, the US appeared to pause its 13-day campaign of daily overnight strikes against Iran. While there was no indication [...]
