I’ve been concerned for some time now about the pace of global change.
This pace continues to accelerate and, frankly, under the general human radar, confronting humanity with unprecedented challenges.
So how do we manage what we don’t know?
My simple answer is to continue to dig, research, engage, and have significant persistence to connect the dots.
I continue searching answers as the majority of humanity sleepwalks to its fate.
Many ask me why I invest time, energy, and resources in this task, and my only answer is that it is my genes that guide me and primarily my fate.
Seated by and gazing at the powerful flow of the Chao Phraya River in Bangkok, I had a feeling of serenity engulfed by the river’s ceaseless ongoing in all directions.
My thoughts took me to the eight developments seriously underway, to which we are not paying enough attention to the impact.
I feel we are at the stage Alvin Toffler described in his book Future Shock back in 1970, when the idea of a smart cell phone was bubbling under the surface but had yet to emerge, and how that instrument has impacted human beings across the globe.
The eight underway developments I have recognized are, in no specific order:
In a general sense, everyone believes that they understand “AI”. That it may take some jobs away, accelerate efficiency, reduce costs, etc. But there is a much more sinister aspect of AI that has already been reached, which is still not in the public domain.
Insofar as “biotech” is concerned, all you have to do is research Jennifer Doudna, an American biochemist who pioneered CRISPR gene editing and a 2020 Nobel Prize winner who can alter the genes of human beings.
Tiffany Vora on the other hand, has immense knowledge of the microbiome, space biology, the impact of viruses that are significantly worse than COVID and biohacking, which can be devastating.
As for cloning, advances in this field remain largely undercover to date. However, circumstances allowed me to experience what a friend has done and how a clone is not only physically the same but has the same character.
Over 15 years ago, I wrote about the threat of being incapable of differentiating fact from fiction. Just as I wrote before about the need to authenticate the use of the internet. Both to avoid the damaging use of fiction dressed in real facts.
The faking of voice and physical imaging have reached a stage of serious danger and complexity which will only become more difficult to see through.
Last month at a board meeting, there were nine human beings and one humanoid robot (a machine with an appearance, form, and characteristics that resemble a human being) that was six feet tall and quite dominating in a polite way. It corrected facts, brought forward research and global statistics, provided background, and took notes.
I say no more to the impact of this humanoid presence.
It is a fact that autonomous intelligence is already with us, and its system can set goals, make decisions, and take action without human supervision. Unlike traditional generative AI, which suggests or creates content, autonomous intelligence can execute multi-step tasks on its own.
It has already reached levels of learning, reasoning, and independent action.
Today, autonomous intelligence is used by the military in many areas, such as selecting targets for bombing, global markets, trading in milliseconds, etc.
Space is a frontier we are already a part of in a big way, but which is still not generally recognized. It has significant roles to play in communication, transportation, the military, and much more.
Recognition and regulation of space is a dream that is still far away.
Quantum computing is the one development that, when it emerges, will impact the other seven underway developments in a big way, as well as turn upside down all the ongoing activity in cyber, privacy, blockchain, security, crypto, and much more.
Having outlined the eight underway developments as I was gazing at the river, I paused, wondering about their impact in today’s world, where the old order that emerged after World War II has disappeared but no new order has emerged, and we live under constant chaos.
A sharp knock on the door of my room in the Four Seasons brought my thoughts back to Bangkok. It was three close friends who were coming for a coffee before we went to dinner:
Steve Tan is a professor of computer science living and teaching in Singapore. Young, active, and a global traveler.
Jacqueline Cavory, an entrepreneur and very successful businesswoman and investor in global companies in Asia, Europe, and the US.
Larry O’Callaghan, an Irish American who over the years has innovated, created, and patented multiple manufacturing processes in the aerospace, transportation, and industrial sectors.
After ordering coffee and exchanging pleasantries since we had not met in person since 2023, we discussed the state of the world.
Globalization, fragmentation, multilateralism, multipolarity, international security architecture, up to 50 global conflicts, lack of effective global institutions and law, disappearance of soft power and moral compass as well as significant global income inequality and corruption.
The conversation got heated at times but was always constructive. Larry remained positive that such challenges would find processes to resolve them. Jacqueline was convinced that this volatility galore was useful for business opportunities but harmful for humanity at large.
Steve, quite cautious, remained worried about any black swan episodes.
We all agreed that the world was moving towards a clear differentiation. Winners, Navigators (middle powers), and Losers.
The winner, in spite of all its issues, was America at the top (see my article titled ‘The Lamborghini Theory’), followed by China.
The navigators are the middle powers in their regions that will navigate at a cost as these challenges manifest themselves.
