The battle for the “Ali al-Taher” heights is placing Hezbollah before a difficult test that goes beyond its ability to defend the hill and prevent its fall. It also tests the effectiveness of the military strategies it has recently developed after conventional strategies failed over the past two years to counter Israel’s military and technological superiority. Can Israel, through firepower, air power and surveillance, suffocate the force deployed in the area and undermine the conditions needed for its survival? Or can the underground fortifications, tunnels, storage facilities and combat capabilities prepared by Hezbollah give it room to continue wearing down Israeli forces and prolong the confrontation? Ability to Maneuver Retired Brigadier General Bahaa Hallal says that, regarding Hezbollah’s military position, “the land still has strategic value for it, but its defensive value automatically declines if it shifts from a controlled area to an exposed area under surveillance.” He explains: “The party’s core strength is not simply holding the hilltop, but its ability to operate in depth and particularly in the surrounding area, while Israel seeks to turn its air and intelligence superiority into permanent ground superiority.” Hallal told Asharq Al-Awsat that “the main challenge facing Hezbollah is maintaining its ability to maneuver. If Israel manages to establish a presence, impose a buffer zone around the hill and prevent the party from moving, the balance of power will gradually begin to shift in its favor.” In this context, underground fortifications are among the most important tools available to the defender. They can reduce the impact of air superiority, preserve a degree of continuity and survivability, and prevent the battle from being decided simply by control of the ground surface. Hallal cautions, however, that fortifications that provide protection from bombardment can become a burden if the area around them becomes besieged or isolated. Isolated Pockets? According to Hallal, this raises the central question in the “Ali al-Taher” battle: “Do the underground facilities still constitute an integrated network for maneuvering and communication, or have they become isolated pockets?” Hallal says the ability to make decisions, communicate and implement them, while maintaining communication channels under pressure, will be among the main challenges facing Hezbollah. However, Hezbollah’s model, historically based on a degree of decentralization and flexibility, may mean that targeting a local position or commander would not necessarily be enough to bring down the entire system. Hallal says the party’s strengths include geographical knowledge, organizational depth, the ability to exploit the mountainous terrain, and the capacity to continue operating despite losing positions. By contrast, he identifies Israel’s superiority in surveillance and air power, as well as the risk of isolation, as its main weaknesses. He says that if Israel succeeds in separating “Ali al-Taher” from Hezbollah’s broader operational theater, the force there will face a more difficult defensive situation. He also considers the destruction of villages, roads and homes to be a major strategic pressure because it strikes part of the social and geographical environment in which any local force operates. A Network of Tunnels Retired Brigadier General George Nader describes the “Ali al-Taher” hill as being of major tactical importance because it overlooks a wide area north of the Litani River and large parts of the area south of it. He also points to its historical significance, as it was previously under Israeli occupation. Nader told Asharq Al-Awsat that, according to the information on which he relies, the hill is an important position for the command of the Radwan Forces. It contains underground facilities and a network of tunnels linked to ammunition, logistics, missiles, drones, fighters and operations rooms. A Bargaining Chip in Negotiations Nader believes that Israeli control of the hill would give Israel greater leverage and a greater ability to impose its terms in future rounds of negotiations, particularly if it manages to turn military control into an established reality on the ground. He believes Israel’s destructive and technological capabilities make the targeting of these facilities and tunnels a possibility, warning that the presence of large quantities of ammunition and missiles in the area could mean that any large-scale destruction operation would have major repercussions. Major Israeli Attack Based on this, Nader expects a major Israeli attack to seize the hill, considering that the objective could have political implications for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seeks to use control of the site to demonstrate that he has succeeded in striking Hezbollah’s command center in the south, thereby enhancing the security of the northern settlements on the eve of Israeli electoral events. As for Hezbollah’s options in response, Nader believes they appear limited given the difficulty of movement south of the Litani River. This, in his assessment, makes it difficult to divert Israeli forces or force them to disperse their efforts by opening other fronts of movement in the area.
