S&P Warns African Sovereign Credit Rating Risks Likely to Worsen

S&P Global Ratings warned on Thursday that the risks to African sovereign credit scores were likely to worsen the longer the Middle East war drags on. The ratings agency said that higher fuel and fertilizer import costs would increase inflation and fiscal strains for countries, “potentially leading to rating pressure”. Egypt, Mozambique and Rwanda are among the “most exposed” the agency said, although Egypt’s deep domestic capital markets and Rwanda’s high levels of concessional debt provide some offset, according to Reuters. Less exposed are net-oil exporters Nigeria, Angola and Congo-Brazzaville as well as Morocco, due to stronger foreign-currency reserves. S&P’s “base case” assumed that the conflict will peak and that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually reopen but related disruptions will likely persist for months. A resumption of hostilities and a more prolonged conflict would present a greater threat to many African sovereigns. The ratings agency said it expected Africa’s borrowing costs to increase due to war’s impacts and as a result of global risk aversion. S&P in recent weeks kept Egypt’s credit rating on a “stable” outlook and affirmed ratings for Morocco, Ghana and Mozambique.