In mid-August, the leader of the Amhara insurgency fighting to overthrow Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a surprising announcement. The collection of armed Amhara movements fighting in the country’s northwest under the unified Fano umbrella would join an alliance of seven other anti-government groups across the country, Fano leader Zemene Kassie told the Swiss publication, Le Temps. What makes the move surprising is that the alliance includes members of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whom the Amhara forces that make up the Fano fought against during the 2020-2022 war. In addition to the TPLF, the alliance includes forces from Gumuz, Oromo, the Berta people and Somalia, Zemene said. At the national level, the fight between Ethiopian oppositional groups and the government comes against the backdrop of a struggle over the future of the country’s multinational federal system and state’s right to self-determination. However, this tension has a larger regional dynamic given Ethiopia’s involvement in the war in Sudan and its expressed desire to secure access to the Red Sea either by diplomatic coup or by force. While fighting between the Fano and the Ethiopian government has transformed much of the Amhara Region into an active war zone since late 2023, the beginning of August saw clashes between TPLF forces and the Ethiopian military that threatened to transform long standing simmering tensions between the groups into an active war. An African Union diplomat based in Addis Ababa told Mada Masr at the time that any expansion of the fighting in Tigray would have an impact on the calculations of every regional actor because the borders linking Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea are no longer merely dividing lines between states. They now form part of an interconnected regional security system in which domestic wars and geopolitical interests overlap, the diplomat added, making any new outbreak of fighting in Tigray a potential factor in reshaping the security landscape of the entire East African region. The government has responded to the early August clashes with increased military activity. In a statement issued on Friday, the Tigray regional government warned the international community that the region is nearing “another catastrophic war.” An economic and security blockade has escalated following clashes that broke out on August 1, the statement added, with air strikes and artillery shelling hitting civilian areas, causing casualties and destruction and disrupting cultural activities. In an interview with Oromia Broadcasting Network on August 7, Abiy criticized the TPLF leadership, accusing it of clinging to outdated political methods and forging alliances that he said threaten stability. TPLF deputy chair Amanuel Assefa pointed to a strike on August 20, when a drone hit a residential area in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital. Residents speaking to Mada Masr confirmed the strike and said several homes were damaged. Medical sources at Mekelle’s Ayder Specialized Hospital said 13 people were brought in with injuries following the strike, including five women and children, with three in serious condition. The injured ranged in age from two to 60, the sources said. Tigrayan authorities also said a second strike hit near Mekelle University, though there is no confirmed information on casualties or damage as of the time of publishing. The strike on Mekelle came only days after another attack that Tigrayan authorities attributed to the Ethiopian military, where a drone struck a farmers’ training center in the Dandera village, about 15 km from Mekelle, on August 18. Site of drone strike in Mekelle, Tigray’s capital. August 20. Source: Tigray Communications Affairs Bureau via Facebook While the government hit Tigray, Fano forces continued to secure strategic wins against the Ethiopian military. Fano forces in the Wollo provinces of Amhara – which borders southern Tigray — have claimed significant military victories in the past week along the Raya and Ambasel fronts, capturing strategic cities, highway corridors and key positions beyond the Awash River. Fano forces seized the cities of Robit and Aradum and moved within three km of the city of Kobo. Fano troops also took control of the main Waja-Kobo asphalt highway, a critical transit corridor leading to Addis Ababa. And on the Ambasel front, Fano forces ambushed government troops moving from Wuchale toward Ambasel Robit, inflicting heavy casualties and taking prisoners. The new military alliance comes after high-level coordination meetings in Port Sudan in May 2026, which brought together hardline factions of the TPLF led by Debretsion Gebremichael, representatives of the Fano movement, the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and Eritrean security officials. The gathering marked a pivotal shift toward a structured multi-factional platform aimed at coordinating political and military pressure against the Ethiopian federal government. According to a Tigrayan political source informed of contacts among the armed factions, understandings developed in recent months between Tigrayan leaders and Fano factions form part of the broader Tsimdo framework, which has evolved this year into a space for coordinating forces opposed to Abiy. The political source said the Tigray-Fano contacts have focused on coordinating positions and putting pressure on the federal government from multiple fronts, while each side continues to retain its own files vis-a-vis the others. The more significant development, the source said, is that the relations have moved from political contacts toward understandings that could be employed on the ground if the confrontation expands. Questions including the future of Western Tigray and the demarcation of the Amhara-Tigray border remain unresolved between the two sides. The Tigray-Fano rapprochement carries a historical paradox. Fano forces fought alongside the Ethiopian military and Eritrean forces against Tigrayan forces during the 2020-2022 war, with Western Tigray — particularly Welkait and Tselemti — among the main arenas of conflict between the Fano and Tigray. After the war, the Fano rebelled against the federal government over its plan to disarm Amhara fighters and integrate them into the national military, while the territorial dispute remained a central faultline in relations between Amhara and Tigray. An Ethiopian source close to the Fano’s leadership said the current rapprochement between the Amhara group and the TPLF is driven by a shared priority of confronting Abiy’s government, while leaving the disputes between the two sides outside the scope of their interim understandings. Inside the Ethiopian federal government, the escalation has exposed a significant internal political rift. According to a source in the prime minister’s office, multiple ministers explicitly refused directives from ruling party leadership to issue media statements denouncing the opposition alliance and advocating for renewed military action, maintaining that war messaging should remain strictly under the purview of the Government Communication Service. In response to internal cabinet pushback, the prime minister’s office instituted a mandatory travel restriction prohibiting ministers from traveling abroad without explicit clearance, leaving Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos as the only cabinet member authorized for international missions, the source added. While there may have been cabinet resistance, Abiy used the Ethiopian National Dialogue Conference, which sources close to its planning told Mada Masr is believed to be a way for the prime minister to push through policy choices under the guise of national discussion, to address his frustration with national cohesion. When the conference that was attended by some 4,000 people concluded on August 21, members tabled proposals addressing the structure of the political and constitutional system. One proposal will see the removal of paragraph eight of Article 39 of the 1995 Ethiopian constitution, which pertains to the right of ethnic groups and regions to self-determination, including secession, and to adopt a presidential system with a six-year term limit, allowing for two terms. Article 39 carries particular weight. It was included in the constitutional framework established after the fall of Mengistu Haile Mariam’s regime in 1991, when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) established a federal system that recognized nations, nationalities and peoples and enshrined their right to self-governance. The TPLF was a key component of the political force that led the transition. A Tigrayan source familiar with the constitutional debate said that the proposal to remove Article 39 directly impacts the struggle over the state’s future. He added that the issue carries significance in Tigray that transcends mere legal amendment, as it touches upon a constitutional principle that, since 1991, has been linked to the rights of nationalities and the relationship between the regions and the central government. An Ethiopian government source said the government views federalism as a matter of national stability, giving it the ability to manage political and ethnic diversity. The source indicated that the government sees rebuilding national institutions and strengthening the rule of law as a means to address regional conflicts, emphasizing dialogue as the political path to resolving disputes. While escalation may be on the table for the national arena, the source in the prime minister’s office said that instructions have been issued for state-aligned media to take on a more moderate public rhetoric surrounding the annexation of Assab and regime change in Asmara in favor of exploring negotiated solutions. Nonetheless, prospects for a bilateral resolution between Abiy and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki remain severely constrained. Asmara’s relationship with Addis Ababa has significantly shifted over the past two years. The two governments have increasingly diverged over the implementation of the Pretoria agreement, the future security order in northern Ethiopia and Addis Ababa’s broader regional ambitions, including its pursuit of access to the Red Sea. Asmara continues to view Ethiopia’s diplomatic shifts through a deep deficit of trust, leveraging alternative regional security partnerships with Egypt and Sudan while recognizing that internal military strains in Amhara and Oromia reduce Addis Ababa’s leverage in any formal negotiation. The new opposition alliance isn’t shying away from casting the conflict in regional terms. Taking a strident tone in his interview with Le Temps, Zemene criticized Abiy’s regional alliances. “The Emirates are acting as colonizers of Ethiopia in this 21st century,” he said. “The Israelis also have drone technicians and military advisors. The Americans and Europeans know exactly what’s going on. But, to varying degrees, they support the regime in power in Addis Ababa.”The post Once bitter enemies Amhara, Tigray reach understandings in fight against Ethiopian govt first appeared on Mada Masr.
