In recent weeks, Arab and Western states aligned with the US and Israel have increasingly concluded that the previous war with Iran failed to deliver the results they expected. The ceasefire memorandum was intended mainly to stop the fighting, reassess the outcome, examine the reasons for the setbacks, revise plans, and study Iran’s demonstrated military capabilities in any possible new round. The war against Hezbollah in Lebanon likewise failed to produce its expected outcome. Hezbollah was neither forced to surrender nor stripped of its ability to operate, while the political track with Beirut has become increasingly difficult. Efforts to eliminate resistance factions in Iraq have also failed. The biggest surprise came from Yemen. Ansar Allah established control over Yemen’s western coastline, strengthened its hold over the southern Red Sea and gained control of the Bab Al-Mandab strait, another critical chokepoint for the global economy. Since the US-Iran ceasefire on April 8, political disputes have intensified over why the war failed to achieve its goals, particularly the failure to overthrow Iran’s government or decisively weaken its allies in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Tensions between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have also affected the Arab Gulf states. Some have concluded that the US security umbrella is less effective than previously assumed and that the cost of alignment with Israel could be high unless Iran’s government is neutralized. The UAE moved quickly toward an “initial deal” with Iran, while Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan remained cautious about the US-Israeli project. Saudi Arabia chose a different course. Mohammed bin Salman’s leadership continued efforts to weaken Iran and its allies through military, security, economic and political means. The campaign extends from the Gulf to Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine. Saudi Arabia’s calculations in Yemen have suffered a major setback. Ansar Allah has seized the western coast and gained leverage over maritime traffic in the southern Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab. In Lebanon, Israel’s attacks have continued. Whenever President Joseph Aoun’s government sought concessions from Israel, the US mediator tied them to plans to disarm Hezbollah, while arguing that the Trump administration could not pressure Netanyahu ahead of Israeli elections. The result has been to keep Lebanon outside the negotiating track with Iran, without giving Washington the influence in Lebanon it had sought. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has worked to prevent the collapse of its allies there, amid concern that Hezbollah could take major domestic steps against them. But the main activity appears to be taking place elsewhere. Information emerging from circles opposed to the US and Israel suggests that the differences between Trump and Netanyahu are not sufficient to undermine their broader cooperation. US-Israeli coordination appears to have resumed, with both leaders again discussing the need to overthrow Iran’s government. Saudi Arabia has increasingly entered the picture. The US military’s Central Command reportedly organized a secret meeting in Germany about 10 days ago. It was attended by Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir and military commanders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt. The meeting addressed Iran and regional military developments, as well as the continuing escalation in Yemen. Saudi Arabia is reportedly urging Washington and Israel to undertake a major operation to “finish Iran once and for all.” While the gathering could be viewed as a review of the previous confrontation, the available information suggests a more ambitious objective. Saudi Arabia is reportedly urging Washington and Israel to undertake a major operation to “finish Iran once and for all.” The developments prompted an unusual warning from Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters. It said there was “information indicating that the US, in order to cover up its failures and achieve false gains, has once again decided, with the green light of some regional states, to resume actions against Iran at a joint meeting in a European country.” The statement appeared to refer to the Germany meeting. It warned that if the US attacked Iran again, US bases and interests across the region would face “continuous, effective and painful attacks.” It also warned that regional states supporting an attack would be treated as participants and could no longer expect restraint from Iranian forces. Some reports have suggested that Saudi Arabia, frustrated by Washington’s failure to provide adequate protection, may seek a rapid settlement with Tehran. But that assessment may be premature. Former Mossad official Oded Ailam has sharply criticized Mohammed bin Salman’s record. Ailam said a biography he helped introduce was “a hymn of praise that places Mohammed bin Salman one step above Churchill and half a step below God,” but added that “reality is completely different” and that the Saudi leader had “failed spectacularly.” At the same time, Israel Hayom quoted an unnamed Saudi official as saying: “We are at war with Iran, even though it has not been officially declared.” The official accused Tehran of seeking to destabilize Saudi Arabia and spread chaos in the Gulf, saying that “overthrowing the regime in Tehran is a regional and global interest.” He said Israel could help, arguing that it had “lit the fuse of the war in Iran” and was “the only party that has proved effective in the war against Ansar Allah.” The message is that Riyadh appears willing to reopen discussions with Washington and Israel over Iran. Saudi Arabia may be prepared to pay a high price to topple Iran’s government and defeat Ansar Allah. But Mohammed bin Salman needs guarantees that such a campaign can succeed. He also knows that another, more destructive war against Iran could fail. Tehran would not respond with restraint. Saudi Arabia’s failure to secure practical support from Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan for a campaign against Ansar Allah has further complicated its position. Riyadh has instead returned to methods it has used before, including reliance on militant networks in Yemen. The latest escalation illustrates the danger. The intense air campaign launched two days ago against 12 Saudi cities reportedly followed a Saudi plan to deploy suicide attackers on booby-trapped motorcycles and with explosive belts against crowds in Al-Sabeen Square in Sanaa, where millions of Yemenis gather each Friday to support Ansar Allah. For Sanaa, such a plan represents an unacceptable escalation. Ansar Allah has warned Mohammed bin Salman that involvement in it could carry a much higher price. The region is now facing intense tension. Major political deadlines are approaching in Israel and the United States, while the economic costs of the ongoing conflict are mounting across the region. The result is growing uncertainty, particularly in Riyadh, over what comes next. The avenues for de-escalation appear increasingly narrow. Tuesday’s meeting between Trump and Gulf leaders and senior officials could help determine whether the parties step back from the confrontation or prepare for another round of violence, potentially on a far broader scale and with fewer constraints. This is an edited translation for an article published in Arabic.
