Around 80% of Lebanon’s Shiites expect living conditions to worsen compared with last year. Despite economic uncertainty and mounting hardship, they remain committed to armed resistance as a means of liberating occupied territory. For 62.3% of respondents, ending the Israeli occupation is the country’s most important issue. Nearly half, or 48.4%, consider armed resistance the most effective way to liberate land and safeguard Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. Meanwhile, 53.5% believe the resistance alone should decide matters of war and peace, while 37.6% favor a joint decision by the state and the resistance. These are the findings of a survey by the Consultative Center for Studies and Documentation, which examined the Shiite community’s views on liberation and political positions. The results suggest that deteriorating living conditions have not changed the community’s political priorities. The Israeli occupation remains a greater concern than economic hardship. Respondents also expressed overwhelming distrust of the current political leadership, while maintaining confidence in the army. The survey found no significant electoral challengers to resistance-backed lists. The survey interviewed 1,065 Shiites living across Lebanon’s governorates and districts. Its coverage included South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, the central and western Bekaa, Beirut and Mount Lebanon, particularly Beirut’s southern suburbs and the towns of Kaifoun and Qmatiyeh. The findings on support for resistance come at a time when Hezbollah had yet to announce or begin paying housing allowances to owners of homes destroyed by Israeli attacks. This reduces the likelihood that political or financial incentives influenced respondents’ answers. On confidence in Lebanon’s political institutions, 56% said they trusted the army. By contrast, 81% expressed no confidence in the presidency, while 88% said they did not trust the current government. Despite their commitment to resistance, respondents expressed deep uncertainty about their economic prospects. Only 3% expect living conditions to improve significantly over the coming year, while 20% anticipate some improvement. On confidence in Lebanon’s political institutions, 56% said they trusted the army. By contrast, 81% expressed no confidence in the presidency, while 88% said they did not trust the current government. Only 12% approved of the government’s performance, and 81% said they wanted it replaced. These figures raise questions about the extent to which Shiites who visit the presidential palace in Baabda represent the wider community. During such visits, they have publicly voiced support for the president, Lebanese legitimacy and negotiations with the Israeli occupation as a path to liberation. The survey also examined attitudes toward resistance weapons and their role in Lebanon’s political framework. For 84% of respondents, the weapons serve a protective and deterrent role as long as the threat persists. Only 4% support placing all weapons under state control. Half of those surveyed consider armed resistance the most effective way to liberate occupied land and protect Lebanon’s security and sovereignty. The US-Iranian track ranked second at 16%, while 13% favored diplomacy and negotiations. Among those who support armed resistance as the path to liberation, 54% favor resuming military operations against Israel even if this leads to renewed war. Another 24% support restarting operations at a level that would avoid another war. Distrust of Lebanon’s political leadership also shapes attitudes toward dealings with Israel. Some 86% expressed negative views of the framework agreement signed by the political authorities with Israel, while 97% rejected normalization. On the question of who should decide matters of war and peace, 53% said the decision should rest exclusively with the resistance. Another 37% favored an agreement between the state and the resistance. The survey report described this latter group, which represents roughly one-third of respondents, as a significant constituency. The findings also shed light on how Shiite voters assess their political representatives. When evaluating their own representatives, 32% prioritize the delivery of public services and development, followed by 30% who focus on their national role. However, when assessing other Shiite political forces, 70% judge them primarily by their position on resistance to Israel. Local development ranks much lower, at 15%. This suggests that rival Shiite parties face a significant challenge in competing with the resistance camp. Indeed, 77% of respondents said they would vote for a resistance-backed electoral list if parliamentary elections were held tomorrow. This is an edited translation of a report originally published in Arabic.
