For the second time, Lebanon’s negotiators are heading to Washington with one primary demand at the top of the agenda: a ceasefire with Israel. The second round of talks, scheduled for June 2–3, comes with little expectation of a breakthrough amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The deadlock had already undermined an American attempt to secure a ceasefire initiative led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, before US President Donald Trump announced Monday that he had held separate phone calls with both sides and that they had agreed to stop the fighting, raising cautious hopes that negotiations could gain new momentum. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun nonetheless defended the decision to pursue negotiations, calling it “the right choice” imposed by the realities of war. He stressed that negotiations remain the least costly path toward ending the military confrontation and alleviating the suffering of the Lebanese people. Lebanese Assessment: Tehran and Netanyahu Converge A senior Lebanese source familiar with the negotiations told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aoun is working intensively with the United States to secure a “real ceasefire.” But the source said Lebanese officials increasingly believe that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu share a common interest in obstructing such efforts. According to the source, Netanyahu’s calculations are driven by personal and electoral considerations, while Tehran seeks to keep Lebanon as a bargaining card to be used by Hezbollah in Iran’s negotiations with Washington. The source added that Aoun remains convinced ceasefire efforts will eventually succeed despite current obstacles, describing them as “the inevitable outcome of the current trajectory.” The American proposal, the source said, also included an Israeli withdrawal within the framework of reciprocal understandings. Lebanon’s delegation is expected to enter the talks with a single demand — a ceasefire — after technical discussions reinforced the belief that ending the fighting is ultimately a political decision rather than a security matter. At the same time, Lebanese officials say the country is open to all options that could follow such a ceasefire, including a security agreement similar to arrangements currently being discussed with Syria, a formal agreement ending the state of war, or a permanent cessation of hostilities. Anything beyond that — namely peace with Israel — would remain tied to the broader Arab position led by Saudi Arabia. Revolutionary Guard Escalation, Israeli Threats The American initiative called for Hezbollah to halt fire first for 48 hours, after which Israel would stop targeting Beirut and its southern suburbs before gradually reducing military operations. Asharq Al-Awsat reported that American officials informed Lebanese leaders on Sunday that Israel had threatened to strike targets in Beirut and the southern suburbs after providing Washington with intelligence alleging that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had instructed Hezbollah to intensify and expand rocket attacks deeper into northern Israel. Sources said Rubio spoke with Netanyahu in an effort to push for a ceasefire. At nearly the same time, Hezbollah launched its largest rocket barrage so far, including precision-guided missiles targeting Kiryat Shmona and Nahariya. Washington also conveyed an Israeli message stating that if Hezbollah agreed to stop firing toward Israel, Beirut could avoid further strikes. Such a move, the message said, could then become part of a broader arrangement leading to a gradual reduction in hostilities and eventually a complete halt. If Hezbollah refused, Israel would intensify strikes on Beirut, particularly in the southern suburbs. Berri: Obstruction or Legitimate Demand? An American official told Axios that Aoun backed the initiative and asked Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to pressure Hezbollah into halting attacks on Israel. The official described Berri’s response as evasive and disappointing, saying he insisted that Israel should cease fire first. But sources close to Berri defended his position, saying it was fully aligned with Lebanon’s broader national stance. They told Asharq Al-Awsat that Berri responded to the American proposal by demanding a comprehensive ceasefire by land, sea, and air, along with an end to Israeli destruction, in order to resume negotiations under calmer conditions both in Lebanon and Israeli settlements near the border. The sources added that Berri later sent a second message to US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa, stating that Hezbollah was prepared to comply and that he personally guaranteed such a commitment. “If this is considered obstruction,” the sources asked, “then what constitutes facilitation?” Who Stops Firing First? AFP quoted a US official as saying Rubio had held contacts with both Aoun and Netanyahu to advance the negotiations. The official added that Hezbollah must stop firing first, while Lebanon continues to insist on a complete halt to Israeli attacks and full implementation of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, former minister Wadih El-Khazen quoted Berri as saying that what southern Lebanon is experiencing constitutes “a direct challenge to Lebanese sovereignty,” stressing that continued Israeli attacks and repeated violations require serious international action. Berri also insisted that any negotiations must produce “tangible results that preserve Lebanon’s rights” rather than remain merely a formal framework incapable of ending ongoing attacks. Aoun: Negotiations Are Safer Than War Aoun reiterated that Lebanon adopted negotiations because of the war itself. “Negotiation is safer than war,” he stated. “It is neither surrender nor concession. It will not solve the problem overnight, but it is a process that takes time and remains the only way to stop the war with the least possible damage.” He continued: “We will not retreat from this choice. All of us in Lebanon, as officials, are doing the impossible. Negotiations may stumble or take longer to achieve the goal we seek, but they are moving forward. Every issue is ultimately resolved through negotiations, however long it takes. War will not produce results for any side.” Regarding Hezbollah’s weapons, Aoun clarified that the Lebanese Army has not declared southern Lebanon free of arms but has established operational control over the area. He said completing the mission requires time because of the region’s geography, while accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement by continuing to occupy five positions and carrying out military operations. Hezbollah Renews Rejection of Direct Talks For its part, Hezbollah continues to reject direct negotiations with Israel. Hezbollah MP Hussein Hajj Hassan said Lebanon “cannot be governed by the principle of majority and minority,” arguing that no national consensus exists in support of direct negotiations, even if some Lebanese factions favor the idea. “From the beginning, we announced our categorical rejection of direct negotiations with the Zionist enemy under American sponsorship,” he said. Hajj Hassan accused Lebanese authorities of “pleading with the Americans” for a ceasefire while arguing that Washington refuses to pressure Israel because it supports the continuation of Israeli military operations and violations. He said the proper alternative lies in restoring national unity and understanding among Lebanese factions, including Berri, Hezbollah, and their allies. He also maintained that Lebanon and any ceasefire arrangement there would form “an essential part” of any future US-Iran agreement.
