As negotiations between Lebanon and Israel continue despite the postponement of the eighth round in Rome, Beirut faces growing pressure to advance the framework agreement and prevent the south from being dragged back into another devastating cycle of war.
It is true that the eighth round of negotiations in Rome was postponed for several reasons, which we will discuss, but the diplomatic track and negotiations have not come to a halt. The ambassadors of Lebanon and Israel in Washington are meeting to give fresh impetus to the difficult negotiations between the two countries.
Ali al-Taher Hill has fallen, despite all the propaganda that Hezbollah has relentlessly pushed in an effort to convince its immediate constituency that it is still capable of waging serious ground combat. Speaker Nabih Berri was clear three days ago when he said, in essence, that Israel could occupy new areas if it chose to do so. The message behind these remarks is crystal clear: there is no longer any point in the unrealistic propaganda with which Hezbollah is inundating its own constituency and other communities in Lebanon. The balance of power is clear, and ignoring it comes at a very high cost. There is therefore an urgent need to find a way to save southern Lebanon and its people before the entire southern region turns into another Gaza or Khan Younis, like Bint Jbeil and Khiam.
The negotiations were postponed because of the approaching Israeli elections, which prompted the parties to adopt even tougher positions. Hezbollah, meanwhile, continues, under the direction and supervision of the Quds Force, its security and military activities south of the Litani River and along its northern fringes, including in the cluster of villages surrounding Ali al-Taher Hill and bordering Nabatieh. It has also continued to infiltrate areas into which the Lebanese Army has deployed under the pretext of facilitating residents' return. All of this prompted Israel to escalate at a politically sensitive moment on the domestic front.
Nevertheless, contacts between Lebanon, Israel, and the United States have continued because there is no other option, at least for Lebanon, than the diplomatic and negotiating track. Lebanon's political leadership, headed by President Joseph Aoun, sees this as the only avenue for rescuing the country from the cycle of endless wars, particularly since those who oppose direct negotiations and the tripartite framework agreement have so far failed to offer any logical, convincing alternatives that would protect Lebanon and prevent it from remaining hostage to external conflicts and interests.
The key point is that Lebanon needs to avoid the trap being set for it by Iran and its arm in Lebanon. That trap is to keep Lebanon in a state of paralysis that serves the Iranian agenda, which does not want Lebanon to free itself from its status as a hostage and a battleground for settling scores between Iran and the countries of the region, Israel among them. Only the framework agreement, compliance with its provisions by both sides, and moving forward can protect Lebanon from this bleak fate.
The longer Lebanon or Israel delays making substantive progress on the framework agreement, the greater the impact on efforts to spare Lebanon the consequences of war and its disastrous repercussions. At the same time, Israel will remain on a heightened state of alert and mobilization, neither of which serves the goal of secure, stable borders that are acceptable to both sides.
For Lebanon, any prospect of a deep economic recovery can be forgotten. There certainly will be no genuine financial investment capable of reviving the struggling Lebanese economy. As for the return of displaced people to their villages and areas, followed by reconstruction, that will not happen, after all the developments since 2023, as long as the threat of war persists.
In short, Iran's and Hezbollah's choices offer the Shiite public nothing but death, destruction, and displacement. While Hezbollah prefers an Israeli invasion of the south to the deployment of the Lebanese Army, it is the choices of the Lebanese state that must ultimately prevail, for the sake of Lebanon and the Lebanese people…
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar
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