As Lebanese-Israeli talks enter a more complex phase, Beirut faces mounting challenges linked to Israel’s elections, Hezbollah’s political and media campaign, U.S. engagement and Iran’s remaining influence in Lebanon.
The intricate and intertwined complexities of the Lebanese-Israeli-American negotiating path require no proof of the arduous and forced journey that Lebanon finds itself undertaking, with no realistic alternative available.
Nevertheless, since the upcoming period is expected to bring longer and more complex challenges regarding the outcomes of the subsequent negotiations, there are aspects of the process worth pausing over, as they offer indicators and examples of the nature of the diplomatic battle, which is no less fierce than the military one.
Hezbollah is diligently using every media and propaganda tool at its disposal to reinforce attempts to transpose the experiences of the 1980s onto the current phase, suggesting the existence of a domestic front opposing the authority conducting the negotiations, regardless of its outdated methods and conspicuous policies of denial. The aim is to divert attention from the catastrophic consequences caused by its instigation of the fiercest Israeli occupations of Lebanon and to conceal the reality of its complete political isolation, leaving it alone in its campaign against the authorities.
The continued complexities of the negotiations will become what Hezbollah considers valuable material for escalating its propaganda war, particularly as the internal scene turns toward vital domestic issues and priorities. This suggests that the upcoming phase will witness a dual escalation, requiring the presidency and government to prepare different strategies to confront the party’s well-known tactics, particularly since the legacy of consequences left by its wars is beyond imagination, while the authorities have so far shown a lack of the boldness required to expose them.
In the negotiating field, as well, the recent rounds raised an unexpected Israeli issue concerning the fate of Lebanese Jews and their dead from the 1980s war. This incident provides another example of the complexities Lebanon will face as the Israeli elections in October approach, whether in purely field-related matters, such as the experimental areas that constitute the core and axis of the negotiations, or otherwise.
This brings everything back to the reality of awaiting the outcome of the Israeli elections to determine which Israeli government will continue negotiating with Lebanon and what constants or variables may result from the return of the current Israeli prime minister or the arrival of someone else.
What applies to the surprising manner in which the issue of the fates of the dead and abducted Jews from the Lebanese war was raised also applies to a media report broadcast by a local television station that did not receive adequate clarification. Here, neither denial nor confirmation through sources is sufficient. The report discusses the Israeli side’s revelation of tunnel networks extending beyond the southern borders to Baalbek, the Shouf, and the mountains of Keserwan and Byblos.
Silence over such reports cannot be understood as simply ignoring potentially false or misleading information. The tunnels discovered in southern Lebanon are sufficient to indicate the catastrophic scale of decades during which the party was allowed to continue building its state, both underground and above ground, unchecked by treaties, governments, authorities, or military and security forces. This issue is too serious to be dealt with silently; its origins and roots are gradually unfolding, and only transparency should guide its handling, regardless of the cost.
In any case, the coming phase will represent the most challenging test ever for the negotiations, requiring preparation for the long and painful wait and an understanding of what program the Lebanese authorities will follow in confronting three scenarios: an Israel heading into elections, an America that may significantly loosen its “enthusiasm” for Lebanon, and an unpredictable Iran that continues to play with what remains of its influence through its Lebanese arm.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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