Israeli reports of military preparations for a possible offensive in South Lebanon have heightened fears among Lebanese officials and residents of another war, amid continuing Israeli attacks, mounting domestic political tensions and uncertainty over Hezbollah’s response to any renewed regional confrontation. Lebanon faces the prospect of a third war, with concerns that Hezbollah could once again draw the country into a conflict in support of Iran, as it has done in the past. Israel’s Maariv newspaper reported that the Israeli military was preparing for the possible occupation of three major cities in South Lebanon - Tyre, Sidon and Nabatieh - if war with Iran resumes and Hezbollah joins the fighting. Israeli assessments believe that Tehran could activate several fronts simultaneously, including Lebanon, it said. Tel Aviv was taking the possibility of Hezbollah’s involvement seriously, despite assessing the group’s military capabilities as weakened, and was preparing to deploy “extremely heavy firepower,” it added. The scenarios outlined by Maariv include intensified strikes across large parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs, a naval blockade of the ports of Beirut and Tripoli, and attacks on coastal cities followed by possible ground advances. Lebanese concerns Lebanese ministerial sources expressed alarm over the reports, warning that another Israeli offensive could not be ruled out. “There is no doubt that the situation is worrying. We cannot exclude the possibility of Israel launching another war against Lebanon, particularly if Hezbollah fails to honor its promise, as it has done before, and once again enters the conflict,” the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. “Israeli threats are nothing new. Officials in Tel Aviv have repeated them many times, placing us before a genuine danger. Unfortunately, we may reach the point where the plans being discussed in the media are carried out,” they added. Riad Kahwaji, a researcher specializing in security and defense affairs, said the Maariv report should be taken seriously. “The threat clearly concerns the entire South, without distinguishing between areas north and south of the Litani River. It extends to the occupation of all of South Lebanon and, inevitably, parts of the western Bekaa if Hezbollah decides to join the fight,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Kahwaji noted that Israel was already preparing for such an operation because it expects Hezbollah to intervene. “Israel fully understands that Hezbollah will enter the confrontation and is preparing for an operation of this kind,” he said. “Hezbollah has not disappointed the Israelis so far, particularly Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. Each time, it acts as the other side expects, allowing Israel to expand the territory under its occupation,” he remarked. He warned that any subsequent Israeli withdrawal would take place on Israel’s terms, leaving Lebanon to accept the conditions imposed. Kahwaji urged the Lebanese government to accelerate efforts to bring all weapons under state control and called on Shiite community leaders to take a decisive position on Hezbollah and its arsenal. “This threat must serve as an incentive for the Lebanese government to speed up its work and become more active on the issue of bringing weapons under state control,” he noted. “We cannot ignore this threat and wait for disaster to strike again.” Looking ahead, Kahwaji predicted that another war appeared inevitable after the US elections, citing remarks Saturday by Iranian supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirming the unity of regional fronts. His statement contradicted reports that Hezbollah would stay out of any future confrontation, added Kahwaji. Al-Rahi calls for Lebanon to stay out of regional conflicts Amid growing fears of a third war, Lebanese figures have renewed calls to keep the country out of regional confrontations. Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi stressed during Sunday Mass that preventing Lebanon from being dragged into another war had become a major national responsibility. He warned that the Lebanese people could not withstand another conflict and insisted that decisions on war and peace must rest with the state rather than multiple competing authorities. Al-Rahi also reiterated the need to place weapons exclusively under the control of the state and its legitimate institutions. The warnings come as Israeli attacks continue across South Lebanon, maintaining military pressure despite concerns over a wider escalation. Social Affairs Minister Haneen Sayed visited the town of Froun in the Bint Jbeil district to inaugurate a center and hand over several prefabricated housing units intended to shelter displaced families. While delivering remarks at the inauguration ceremony, Israeli warplanes struck the town of Qoussair with two missiles. Sayed interrupted her speech upon hearing the explosion and recorded the strike on her phone before resuming her address. She stressed the importance of supporting displaced people, strengthening humanitarian and social assistance, and providing shelters and essential supplies to affected families. Israeli artillery also shelled the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal, the Baraashit-Kounine area and Bani Hayyan.
