An Israeli plan has emerged for a withdrawal from most occupied Lebanese territory, with troops remaining two to four kilometers inside Lebanon along what has been dubbed the “gray line,” replacing the currently occupied “yellow line.” The plan comes after the Israeli military announced it had established operational control over the Ali al-Taher ridge in South Lebanon and begun destroying an underground tunnel complex built by Hezbollah. Israeli officials are now speaking of “sensitive days” ahead on the northern front that could send the region down one of two sharply different paths: Hezbollah, and possibly Iran, could retaliate and reignite the war, or they could absorb the blow, allowing the Israeli military to withdraw from the ridge and the “yellow line” and establish a new security belt along the “gray line.” Under that scenario, Israel would retain control of Lebanese territory extending two to four kilometers from the international border. Israeli military sources cited by public broadcaster Kan 11 said that after establishing “operational control” and clearing tunnels and other underground infrastructure on the Ali al-Taher ridge, the military was preparing to reduce and redeploy its forces, pulling back to a new “security belt” closer to the Israeli-Lebanese border. ‘Gray line’ According to Kan 11, Israeli security officials have held discussions in recent days on establishing a new security zone closer to the border from which the military would protect Israeli border communities. Under the proposal, Israeli forces would withdraw from the current “yellow line,” which encompasses a broader security zone and in some areas extends north of the Litani River, including Beaufort Castle and the Ali al-Taher ridge. Troops would instead deploy closer to the border. Israeli military positions would remain inside Lebanese territory and could serve as staging points for operations deeper into Lebanon if Hezbollah activity were detected. The military is expected to ask the Israeli government to capitalize on the new situation by reaching a political agreement with Beirut that would establish understandings on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem has said the group would hand its weapons only to the Lebanese state as part of practical steps demonstrating an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, insisting there could be no disarmament without a withdrawal. Israel is setting specific conditions, including that the Lebanese Army take control of evacuated areas and commit to preventing Hezbollah from returning to its positions in the south. Israel also wants an agreed mechanism allowing it to monitor the process and intervene militarily to prevent Hezbollah’s return if the Lebanese Army fails to do so. Kan 11 reported that the plan remains incomplete and has not yet been approved by Israel’s political leadership. Questions remain, particularly over transferring control to the Lebanese Army and negotiations between the two countries, but the plan envisages a substantial reduction in Israeli forces inside Lebanon.
