Israeli settlers head to the polls on Tuesday after an election campaign in which traditional party platforms have taken a back seat to one overriding question. What kind of state will emerge from the vote? Security, national identity and the structure of state institutions have become central battlegrounds, even within the same political camp. Both sides have portrayed a victory by their rivals as a threat to the state itself, while warning that their own defeat could endanger their political future. This existential rhetoric clashes with the more complicated calculations reflected in the latest polls, released on Friday evening under Israeli election rules. Channel 12 gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents 56 seats, Channel 13 projected 54 and Kan forecast 52. Netanyahu’s camp received 50 seats in all three polls. These figures exclude Arab parties, which the broadcasters collectively projected to win 14 to 16 seats. Neither camp is close to the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. Israel’s proportional electoral system, in which voters choose party lists in a single nationwide constituency, forces parties to fight on two fronts. They compete against the opposing camp for a parliamentary majority while also competing with allies for the same voters. Within the anti-Netanyahu camp, Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, topped all three latest polls with 22 to 23 seats, maintaining a lead it has held for weeks and even months. It was followed by B'Yachad, formed last April through the merger of Naftali Bennett’s and Yair Lapid’s parties and led by Bennett, with 12 to 15 seats. The Democrats were projected to win 10 seats and Yisrael Beiteinu eight. The camp has yet to agree on who should lead it or who should be nominated to form the next government. Overall, polls put Netanyahu’s opponents two to six seats ahead. The margin remains narrow, especially given polling error and normal fluctuations in voter preferences. The figures should therefore be treated as indicators of the contest’s direction, not a settled outcome. Netanyahu’s Likud party ranked second overall, with 19 to 21 seats. Its coalition partners trailed with comparable numbers. Shas, the Mizrahi Haredi party, and Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit were each projected to win eight seats, followed by United Torah Judaism, the Ashkenazi Haredi party, with seven. Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party was projected to win six seats. With the parties competing for similar shares of the vote, each is seeking to strengthen its position within its own camp. More seats would not only increase its parliamentary weight but also improve its bargaining power in coalition negotiations. The irony is that allies are competing over seats before knowing whether their camp can secure a majority at all. The electoral threshold adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for Netanyahu’s camp. Any party that fails to secure at least 3.25% of the valid vote, equivalent to roughly 165,000 to 170,000 votes based on the previous turnout rate, will be excluded from the Knesset. This could cost its camp up to four seats. That alone could change the balance between the two blocs more than a shift in support between two major parties. Arab parties remain crucial to any opposition effort to reach the 61-seat threshold. But relying on their seats faces resistance within the opposition itself, particularly from Yisrael Beiteinu, which rejects including Arab parties in a governing coalition. Bennett has also expressed reservations, though less forcefully. The opposition could therefore gain enough seats on paper by relying on Arab parties, only to lose the support of Zionist parties unwilling to join a coalition that depends on them. Overall, polls put Netanyahu’s opponents two to six seats ahead. The margin remains narrow, especially given polling error and normal fluctuations in voter preferences. The figures should therefore be treated as indicators of the contest’s direction, not a settled outcome. Which camp comes closest to victory, or suffers the smaller defeat, will depend on several decisive factors. These include turnout among the 48' Palestinians, which parties cross the electoral threshold and the size of the gap between Yashar and Likud. Israeli broadcasters are expected to publish preliminary vote-count estimates Tuesday evening. This is an edited translation of an article originally published in Arabic.
