The decision by influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadrist Movement, to break his prolonged silence and publicly back Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s anti-corruption campaign appears to mark a turning point in Iraq’s political landscape. It raises the prospect of a direct confrontation with the ruling Coordination Framework, after years in which rivalry between the two sides was largely confined to electoral politics and political maneuvering rather than open confrontation. The first notable response came from former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law Coalition, who defended the Framework as a political project that had “proven its success.” His remarks were widely interpreted as an attempt to contain mounting pressure on the ruling Shiite alliance that has varying ties to Iran. The developments come amid signs of growing divisions within the Framework, which emerged after the 2021 elections as an alternative to the Shiite alliances that had dominated Iraqi politics since 2005. Al-Sadr’s silence After the 2021 elections, al-Sadr sought to form a “national majority government” with the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Masoud Barzani, and a Sunni alliance headed by former Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi. The effort collapsed because of the so-called “blocking third,” which prevented the election of a president by the constitutionally required majority and prolonged Iraq’s political deadlock. In the summer of 2022, al-Sadr withdrew his lawmakers from parliament and announced his departure from political life, declaring that he refused to “participate with the corrupt in any form.” He also said he would not take part in elections “while the corrupt remain,” urging his supporters to preserve their political and grassroots organization in preparation for a future stage should circumstances change. Since then, al-Sadr has boycotted every subsequent election, including the most recent one, despite repeated calls — including from rivals within the Framework — to return to politics. Anti-corruption campaign reshapes the landscape The political equation shifted with al-Zaidi’s recent anti-corruption campaign, which reached its peak with the arrest of 21 political and parliamentary figures in the operation dubbed “Dawn Strike.” The campaign gained further momentum after investigating judge Diaa Jaafar revealed that part of the embezzled funds had been used to finance election campaigns, raising broader questions about the integrity of the most recent elections and the influence of political money on their outcome. Observers said these developments have given al-Sadr political ground that aligns with the position he adopted after leaving parliament: refusing to participate in what he considers a political system tainted by corruption. Settlement or political realignment? Al-Zaidi became prime minister after the Coordination Framework failed to agree on a candidate from within its own ranks. After former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani was effectively ruled out for a second term and al-Maliki’s candidacy faltered amid domestic and international objections, specifically from the US, political factions turned to a figure from outside Iraq’s traditional political class. A businessman in his 40s, al-Zaidi is widely seen as an acceptable choice for Washington, while Iran has reacted with unusual caution, reflecting what many observers see as a decline in its influence in Iraq compared with previous years. His early decisions attracted attention, including his announcement not to attend the funeral of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which was attended by several Coordination Framework leaders and an official Iraqi delegation headed by President Nizar Amidi. He has also pledged to strengthen ties with the United States and is expected to visit Washington in July. Domestically, al-Zaidi has vowed to press ahead with mostly pro-Iran disarming armed factions, giving them until September to surrender their weapons, an issue successive Iraqi governments have failed to resolve because of its political and security complexities. Al-Sadr breaks his silence The turning point came when al-Sadr fully endorsed the anti-corruption campaign, describing al-Zaidi as a “soldier of reform.” The move went beyond political support, giving the government broad popular backing. Pro-government demonstrations followed, while Sadrist leaders began openly supporting the campaign after months of silence awaiting al-Sadr’s instructions. Observers viewed this as the first broad political and popular alignment against Iraq’s ruling establishment since 2003, particularly because the anti-corruption campaign has targeted figures associated with influential factions within the Coordination Framework. The political stakes are heightened by the fact that al-Zaidi’s priorities — combating corruption and bringing all weapons under state control — overlap with those of US President Donald Trump’s administration toward Iraq. Analysts said this creates a convergence of interests between Washington and the Sadrist Movement, despite their fundamental differences on other issues. Pressure mounts on the Coordination Framework The convergence does not amount to a direct political alliance between al-Sadr and the US administration. However, it gives al-Zaidi’s government support from two actors traditionally viewed as standing on opposite sides of Iraq’s political divide, thereby increasing pressure on the Coordination Framework. In response, al-Maliki defended the alliance in a post on X, saying it had served as “the incubator of the national political process” and that its success was reflected in its role in forming three successive governments. “There is no reason to abandon a project that has proven successful,” he wrote, adding that the Coordination Framework “will remain as it was founded, preserving its principles, identity and founders,” while arguing that any reform should be limited to improving its mechanisms and performance, without altering the essence of the project.
