Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is not considering resignation and will not do so, even as pressure mounts over armed factions, the government said on Thursday, insisting that the weapons issue was “a constitutional principle” to be addressed through legal channels. Officials and sources said, however, that parties within the ruling Coordination Framework were pressing the government to retreat from its plans after Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf called for turning the drive to bring weapons under state control into “a merely symbolic project.” “Al-Zaidi pledged to the Iraqi people in the government’s statement to press ahead with strengthening state authority and upholding the rule of law,” Haider al-Aboudi, the prime minister’s spokesman, told Asharq Al-Awsat. “The government has taken substantive and important steps toward bringing weapons under state control and remains committed to completing the process in line with Iraq’s sovereignty and national interests,” he said. He stressed that the government viewed the weapons issue as “a constitutional principle to be addressed through institutions and legal channels in light of the country’s supreme interests, sovereignty, stability, and international relations.” That commitment has not eased the pressure on the government as it tries to implement the plan. From the outset, al-Zaidi tied his government’s success to its ability to strengthen state authority and fulfill Iraq’s international commitments. Asked about al-Zaidi’s future under mounting pressure, al-Aboudi said: “Resignation has never been, and will never be, a means of dealing with the issue of bringing weapons under state control.” “The Iraqi government will continue to carry out its responsibilities and complete the executive measures it has begun, under a clear national vision that strengthens state authority and safeguards unified national decision-making and Iraq’s supreme interests,” al-Aboudi vowed. Bringing all weapons under state control was among the commitments previously approved by parties in the State Administration Coalition. The coalition renewed its support for the measure on August 6 and called for adherence to the timetable for steps to be taken after September 30. From that point, the statement said, any armed activity outside the state’s framework would be dealt with under the counterterrorism law. During a White House visit on July 14, al-Zaidi also pledged that no faction would be allowed to bear arms in Iraq after the September deadline, which coincides with the withdrawal of US forces. Groups that have joined the process, first announced on June 3, include Saraya al-Salam, led by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr; Asaib Ahl al-Haq, led by Qais al-Khazali; and Kataib al-Imam Ali, which is affiliated with Shibl al-Zaidi and announced a “political separation” from its fighters within the Popular Mobilization Forces. The plan has faced fierce resistance from other factions operating under the PMF and from allied groups within the Coordination Framework. Iranian officials have markedly stepped up visits to Baghdad. Mohsen Qomi, a representative of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, arrived in the capital on Monday and attended part of a ruling-alliance meeting that al-Zaidi also attended. The factions had earlier leaked reports of unannounced visits by Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force. Sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that Ghalibaf urged Coordination Framework leaders not to abandon the factions and to “prevent the government from ending the factions’ ability to retain their weapons.” Ghalibaf was quoted as saying the Coordination Framework should help turn the weapons-control plan into “a merely symbolic project,” adding: “Iran will not allow the United States to manipulate the balance of power in Baghdad.” At the end of his visit, Ghalibaf said in Najaf, southwest of Baghdad, that “a new security order is taking shape in the region, and Iraq is Iran’s primary partner in it.” The factions appear to have gained negotiating leverage after receiving urgent assistance from Tehran. A senior adviser in the State Administration Coalition said Iranian officials had intervened to demand that the weapons-control plan be postponed and its approach changed. Under the proposed alternative, the surrender of weapons would be replaced by mutual guarantees, including a commitment by the factions not to use their arms. “The resistance factions have asked the government to find a strong and reliable alternative to their weapons that they can depend on before they can be persuaded to relinquish their arsenals,” said Kadhem al-Fartousi, a spokesman for Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada. “The factions want guarantees regarding an alternative to their weapons,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. ‘No need to fear isolation’ The discussion of guarantees shows how the rhetoric has recently shifted from bringing weapons under state control to regulating them. Two Coordination Framework officials said parties within the alliance had “translated Iranian pressure into what appeared to be an accelerating effort to push the government to change its plans.” One official said alliance leaders had told al-Zaidi in bilateral talks and broader meetings that “Baghdad should not fear US sanctions or international isolation if the plan to bring weapons under state control is not completed on schedule.” Many in Iraq believe allowing factions run by the Revolutionary Guards to keep their weapons “would carry a heavy cost.” The president of the Kurdistan Region said in televised remarks in mid-August that “international isolation is drawing closer to Baghdad unless it finds a solution to the factions’ weapons.” Coordination Framework leaders, however, believe sanctions or isolation remain highly unlikely for Iraq under current conditions, sources said. They argue that the United States and other countries will continue to need Iraqi oil to replace strategic reserves depleted during the war with Iran, making it difficult to impose broad economic sanctions on Iraq. They urged al-Zaidi to adopt that assessment and retreat from his plan to bring the factions’ weapons under state control. Some also pressed him to “close the chapter on the anti-corruption campaign,” arguing that Iraqi oil would retain strategic value in international markets and limit Washington’s ability to impose economic sanctions on Baghdad. Al-Zaidi “rejected that assessment,” according to the sources. A senior official told Asharq Al-Awsat that al-Zaidi “views resignation as an option if he finds himself forced to retreat from his international commitments.” A person close to al-Zaidi said the prime minister believed that “the Coordination Framework and its allied parties are treating him as a competitor, not as a partner that shares responsibility for the government he formed about three months ago.” The factions do not view al-Zaidi’s fate as a central concern. “The prime minister’s resignation is a personal right and a political decision for the Coordination Framework to address. It has never been a demand of the factions,” al-Fartousi said. ‘A new direction’ A gap has emerged between the government and its Coordination Framework allies over the cost of retreating from Iraq’s international commitments - a move that could affect al-Zaidi’s political credibility and the future of his government. From a Western perspective, the repeated shifts in the positions of Iraq’s Shiite parties reflect Iran’s practice of delaying decisive action. A Western diplomat who served in Iraq from 2019 to 2023 said he believed “Iran’s allies in Iraq are trying as hard as they can to buy time for the government in Tehran.” The diplomat said US officials were eager to see “a new direction under al-Zaidi’s leadership” and that the American position remained “clear and unequivocal on ending the influence of weapons outside state control.” He said US officials had told Coordination Framework leaders that Washington was “eagerly awaiting the end of September to achieve the fundamental objective of asserting state authority and ending the influence of unregulated weapons.” Al-Zaidi is not the first Iraqi prime minister to face a dilemma over armed factions. But he faces an unprecedented test: fulfilling his commitments to bring weapons under state control while preserving political cohesion under complex domestic and foreign pressure.
