Following the recent agreement, the regime appears weaker than it was months ago. It lost Ali Khamenei, who served as the “tent pole” and the center of balance among the different factions. Several levels of Revolutionary Guards leadership and security circles suffered significant blows, while its naval, air, missile, and nuclear capabilities were damaged, and the effectiveness of its affiliated groups across the region declined. Alongside these losses, massive economic damage has accumulated, while social and living crises inside Iran have deepened. Yet the most dangerous factor is not merely these losses themselves, but the widening internal divisions.
