With Washington preparing tougher sanctions and Tehran warning regional states against joining the U.S. campaign, escalation remains the most likely path as efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks hang in the balance.
The launch of the "economic war" against Iran marks a new phase in the conflict, which has been raging for nearly six months. This phase is no less dangerous than the military operations, especially as U.S. officials have begun making clear that the aim is to impose “the harshest” pressure possible to force the Iranian regime to collapse. Iran, meanwhile, has warned regional countries against joining U.S. efforts to isolate Tehran.
As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent prepares to unveil details of the new U.S. sanctions on Monday, President Donald Trump has not ruled out a return to the military option if the economic war fails to achieve its goal of reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and returning to negotiations over a deal on Iran’s nuclear program. That program was, after all, the main reason behind the U.S.-Israeli war launched on February 28.
An Iranian woman on the shore of Bandar Abbas opposite the Strait of Hormuz, August 10, 2026. (AFP)
Still, given the tough demands put forward by Iran’s new leadership and Washington’s repeated calls for regime change in Tehran, a diplomatic breakthrough anytime soon appears unlikely. The visit by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, to Tehran on Monday is part of Islamabad’s ongoing efforts to find a way out at the eleventh hour, before the United States formally announces its “economic war.”
Iran’s decision to allow a number of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz may also be intended as a positive signal to avoid a slide toward a point of no return. The move is in line with a statement by Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said it would be “better” for Iran to end the war while it is “in a position of strength.”
In a particularly significant statement, Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stressed that military power alone was not enough to ensure the country’s survival. “Iran will not be able to withstand this if people are hungry, if money is not circulating, and if there is no economic growth or domestic production,” he said. “As a party that has experienced wars, we understand the true value of peace.”
Unlike the more flexible positions taken by Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf, Iranian National Security Council chief Mohsen Rezaei vowed to thwart the U.S. economic war. He warned that Tehran would regard any country taking part in it as “an enemy” and would engage with those countries to persuade them to change course. “But if their participation continues, Iran will not allow a single drop of oil to pass through the Gulf, whether through the Strait of Hormuz or any other route,” he said.
In a hint that Iran could reconsider its nuclear doctrine, Rezaei added that “Trump, through his aggression against Iran, has pushed the world toward considering acquiring a nuclear bomb.”
Just as Iranian positions have swung between defiance and flexibility, a senior U.S. official acknowledged that there are divisions within the White House over the war and possible ways to bring the crisis to an end.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf during a visit to Najaf, August 21, 2026. (AFP)
The Trump administration is also unsure whether China, which imports 80 percent of Iran’s oil, is prepared to go along with U.S. efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy. Beijing has criticized the U.S. move and reiterated its position that sanctions will not solve the problems in the Middle East.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing to visit the United States next month. Trump is unlikely to risk damaging ties with Beijing at this stage, particularly as he is sending friendly messages to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who is close to both China and Russia.
With the U.S. and Iranian positions still far apart, escalation remains the most likely outcome. Meanwhile, countries around the world are preparing for the possibility that the current confrontation will not be resolved anytime soon and are seriously exploring alternatives to existing supply routes.
For example, a French-Saudi ministerial working group on energy routes between the Middle East and Europe is due to meet in Paris on Monday, on the sidelines of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s state visit to France.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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