Iran is linking any deal on the Strait of Hormuz to wider demands, while Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb add pressure on the U.S. as economic strains deepen in Tehran.
Iran is insisting on separating any agreement it reaches with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz from the decision to reopen the strait. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump has said that the shipping route is under American control and that the amount of oil passing through it is increasing, suggesting that the United States is in no rush to settle the issue.
Iran’s new Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, has put forward tougher conditions than those announced by his predecessor, Mohammad Bagher Zolqadr, before he was transferred to his new position as an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Rezaei said the United States must end the war and release Iran’s frozen funds, in addition to halting the fighting in the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza, and accepting other conditions that had been conveyed through mediators.
He stressed that any agreement between Iran and Oman on establishing a route for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz would not automatically lead to the strait being reopened to navigation. Recently, Trump said that the United States was ready to lift the naval blockade on Iranian ports as soon as Tehran and Muscat reached an agreement.
This is where Rezaei’s rush to set out a vision extending beyond Hormuz comes in. Its essence is changing U.S. behavior, with its ultimate goal being an American withdrawal from the region. This underscores the Iranian regime’s ideological approach, rather than showing some of the pragmatism expressed by certain officials, foremost among them President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is calling for an end to the state of neither war nor peace.
While the deteriorating economic situation is the point of weakness through which Trump is currently exerting pressure on Iran, the regime is resorting to measures such as rationing essential goods, restricting access to foreign currency, sharply cutting investment, and shifting more of the burden onto households, while maintaining strategic imports and the basic mechanisms of state functioning.
According to data from global shipping companies, Iranian oil exports have fallen to zero this month in light of the U.S. blockade, after Tehran sold $4.5 billion worth of oil in June, when the memorandum of understanding was signed. Iran’s floating oil inventories outside the reach of the U.S. blockade fell from 180 million barrels to 60 million barrels in early July. This is affecting Iran’s foreign-currency revenues. Inflation has exceeded 80 percent, while the International Monetary Fund expects the Iranian economy to contract by 5.4 percent year-on-year, in a country that has lived under sanctions for 47 years.
Nevertheless, the regime is preparing Iran to withstand the new economic pressures to a greater extent than the global and U.S. economies can withstand, as a result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the escalation of Houthi attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (right) during his meeting with Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Reza Naqvi in Tehran, August 11, 2026. (Iranian Foreign Affairs/AFP)
In the attack on a commercial vessel in the strait on Tuesday, six people were killed, including three Pakistani sailors. The incident occurred as Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi was visiting Tehran, as part of Islamabad’s efforts to mediate between the United States and Iran. So, is this the first test of the Mecca Agreement on joint defense between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, which was signed last week?
The escalating Houthi attacks since late July are part of Iran’s broader strategy for the region and lie at the heart of increasing the cost of the conflict for Trump.
On Tuesday, Trump said he had three options for dealing with Iran: negotiations, economic pressure and force. The question now is: What if the “economic wrath” campaign, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it, fails to produce an impact before the midterm elections, at a time when there are no signs that serious negotiations may begin?
Such a situation would leave Trump with two options: withdrawal or the renewal of the military campaign. Both options would be worse than the other.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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