Opposition is easy... and profitable.
This is because the opposition does not bear significant (or perhaps even minor) responsibility for the deterioration of economic and social conditions, unlike ruling parties or those in power. As a result, incumbents tend to see their popularity decline over time, often starting almost as soon as they assume office.
Opposition parties in the United States are no exception to this rule. In the U.S., the opposition is the party that does not hold the presidency. Currently, that party is the Democrats. This theoretically gives them an advantage in the upcoming midterm elections.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently acknowledged the difficult position facing the Republican Party, saying he did not understand why the party in power loses in midterm elections. Part of the explanation lies in the difficulty of fulfilling electoral promises, as well as historical factors such as Americans' preference for limiting authority. This is one reason, for instance, why the United States adopted a presidential system rather than a parliamentary one, which allows for greater cooperation between the House and the cabinet. Naturally, economic and living conditions also take precedence.
If a setback is almost certain in the midterm elections, what has been the rate of legislative seat losses in the United States over the decades under such circumstances?
The U.S. Senate consists of 100 seats, with each state holding two seats, regardless of the size of its electorate. One-third of the seats are up for renewal in each midterm election. Currently, with two additional vacant seats, 35 Senate seats are being contested. Generally, in the event of a tie between Democrats and Republicans, the Vice President, currently J.D. Vance, casts the deciding vote. Therefore, the opposition party needs at least 51 seats to control the Senate.
The Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, but the political winds are against them. According to the average of RealClearPolitics polls, the Democrats are expected to gain four seats. In the best-case scenario, that figure could reach six.
Historically, since 1934, the party holding the presidency has lost an average of between three and four Senate seats (3.25) in midterm elections. This means that if these figures materialize, Trump's losses could match or exceed the historical average of consecutive Senate seat losses.
The U.S. House of Representatives consists of 435 seats (excluding six non-voting delegates representing American territories and the District of Columbia). Elections, however, involve only the 435 voting seats. The threshold for controlling the House is 218 seats, which the Republicans currently hold, compared with 214 for the Democrats, with one independent seat and another vacant.
According to the average of RealClearPolitics polls, the Democrats are expected to win 241 seats, compared with 194 for the Republicans. If these figures materialize, Trump's party would lose 24 seats.
Since approximately World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 29 seats in the House. However, including the last five midterm election cycles brings that figure slightly higher, to 31 seats.
Thus, an acceptable benchmark for assessing the Republican Party's performance in the midterm elections would be losses of three to four seats in the Senate and approximately 30 seats in the House of Representatives.
