As Tehran holds its grip on the strategic waterway and Washington weighs broader military options, diplomatic efforts struggle to prevent a new escalation.
The U.S.-Iranian confrontation over control of the Strait of Hormuz has not ended, despite the cautious calm that may prove temporary as both sides remain committed to their respective conditions.
Diplomatic efforts aimed at reaching compromise solutions and reactivating the understanding agreement between the two parties may help ease tensions, but only for limited periods, while awaiting the next round of conflict in which Washington seeks a decisive victory. However, this time, U.S. forces may not be alone on the battlefield. They could become part of an international coalition potentially formed with London’s assistance to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Securing the strait remains impossible as long as mines and Iranian missile and drone attacks continue to pose threats. Any international force would need to carry out operations to eliminate these threats, a task that would only be possible through control of Iranian islands in Hormuz, as well as the Iranian coasts and hills overlooking the strait. Losing control of the strait would mean Tehran losing its last major strategic card.
Certainly, deploying ground forces on Iranian territory would not be easy, making such a decision extremely difficult for countries considering participation in the operation. Their governments would need a strong argument to present to their populations in order to justify involvement in the war.
Tehran’s insistence on controlling the Strait of Hormuz, its continued closure, and its targeting of ships there, along with Houthi threats to navigation in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, would intensify the global energy crisis to an unprecedented level and threaten international supply networks across various economic sectors.
As a result, the Iranian regime’s actions are gradually becoming a serious threat to the national security of many countries worldwide, particularly major economic powers. In doing so, the Iranian leadership has inadvertently helped Washington form the military alliance it failed to establish during the previous war, which was launched under different titles and lacked support from many countries, particularly European states.
The regime is betting on divisions and disputes between the United States and European and Asian countries, as well as on high global energy prices, to achieve its goal of controlling the Strait of Hormuz and strengthening its position against Washington. This would allow it to survive, rebuild its capabilities, and restore its regional arms. However, the positions of global powers suggest different potential outcomes.
Moreover, leaks indicating that the new Iranian leadership is more open to developing nuclear weapons point to an American effort to promote the narrative of a rogue state posing a nuclear threat, one that is now attempting to control the Strait of Hormuz and pressure the international community. Accordingly, Washington continues to indirectly promote the necessity of toppling the regime before its threat to international security becomes uncontrollable.
Yet, building an international coalition and deploying forces for such a war would take months. This means the current state of no war and no peace could continue until next winter, with the naval blockade on Iran remaining in place and occasional military escalations continuing.
Since much of the new Iranian Revolutionary Guard leadership lacks experience in international relations and views persistence in its objectives as the only path to survival, diplomatic solutions acceptable to Washington and its allies will remain unlikely or nearly impossible. Therefore, diplomatic efforts aimed at tactical objectives, such as buying time in preparation for a decisive military option, are likely to continue.
Real calm and stability will not return to the region until one side achieves a decisive military victory over the other. However, reaching such an outcome will not be easy and will come with significant losses and consequences resulting from both the war itself and the period leading up to it.
If the formation of an international coalition proves impossible, Washington may resort to more strategic bombardments and an intensified blockade lasting more than six months. This could further worsen social, economic, and living conditions inside Iran, negatively affecting the regime’s security situation and threatening its continuity. In either scenario, the confrontation with Iran will continue and is unlikely to be resolved before 2027.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by the writers are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Annahar.
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