Lebanese are awaiting the publication of the reported US-Iran memorandum of understanding to determine whether it contains any provisions relating to Lebanon. The document is expected to settle competing interpretations promoted by rival political camps, each claiming its provisions serve their interests. Attention is also focused on how Hezbollah would respond if the memorandum does not address an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and instead limits itself to calling for an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, while affirming the country’s sovereignty. Such an outcome would contradict Hezbollah’s narrative that an Israeli withdrawal would be placed on the agenda of US-Iran talks, envisioned as a 60-day process that could be extended and potentially punctuated by further rounds of violence. In its statement on the memorandum, Hezbollah stopped short of declaring victory and merely thanked Iran. Opponents interpret this as an indication that the issue of Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon has been deferred to the fifth round of Lebanese-Israeli negotiations, scheduled for June 23–25 at both military and political levels under US auspices. They argue this will increase pressure on Hezbollah to surrender its weapons, echoing recent domestic and international calls, including those contained in the final communiqué of the Group of Seven summit. At the same time, observers say it remains to be seen whether the US is willing to pressure Israel to withdraw, particularly amid reports of President Donald Trump’s frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs and what critics describe as actions that complicated efforts to reach an understanding with Iran. A Different Round of Negotiations A cabinet source said the upcoming negotiations differ fundamentally from previous rounds because they come after the US-Iran understanding and amid a broader regional shift. According to the source, both Israel and Hezbollah will have to adapt to a new political reality. The source argued that Hezbollah now faces a choice between changing its conduct or persisting in policies that, in the view of its critics, brought severe consequences for Lebanon through its support for Gaza and Iran. The source maintained that Hezbollah no longer has the capacity to sustain a prolonged conflict and should instead align itself with the state’s diplomatic strategy and respond to demands from a majority of Lebanese for what was described as the “Lebanonization” of its political positions. The same source said many domestic and international actors are counting on Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to persuade Hezbollah to reassess both its political and military options after what critics regard as a costly period for the country. Weapons and Withdrawal According to the source, negotiations remain the only viable path toward restoring stability in southern Lebanon. The envisioned framework would pair a phased Israeli withdrawal with a timetable under which Hezbollah would gradually place its weapons under state authority. The source argued that recent developments have demonstrated the limits of Hezbollah’s military deterrence against further Israeli expansion. The source also rejected suggestions that any US-Iran understanding would revive Iran’s influence in Lebanon or restore Hezbollah to the position it held before the Gaza war. Dispute Over the Government As Lebanon prepares for what many see as a new phase, a source close to the Shiite political alliance said Hezbollah is divided over how to deal with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government. One faction, described as hardline, favors changing the government, while another believes current political conditions make such a move unrealistic because of parliamentary arithmetic and that priority should instead be given to securing an Israeli withdrawal and rebuilding devastated towns. The source said opponents of changing the government view such a confrontation as a losing battle that would deepen Hezbollah’s isolation, strengthen support for the government, and reinforce the diplomatic approach pursued jointly by President Joseph Aoun and Salam. The source added that Hezbollah currently needs international and Arab support for reconstruction and reconciliation with its own constituency more than it needs a political showdown. Any effort to replace the government or reshuffle ministers, the source said, would first have to win over Berri, who has consistently called for national unity, reducing internal tensions, safeguarding civil peace, and preserving domestic stability in the face of Israel. For that reason, he opposes attempts either to topple the government through street pressure or to seek its replacement.
