Military escalation in Yemen is entering a new phase after the National Defense Council ordered an expansion of air and missile deterrence operations against the Houthis, a move military experts say lays the groundwork for shifting from repelling attacks to striking their sources. Experts told Asharq Al-Awsat that the deployment of government drones marks a significant change in the balance of power. They believe government forces may possess more advanced drones that have yet to be deployed, while cautioning that the confrontation remains tied to regional tensions and calculations in Iran and the United States. From defense to preemptive strikes Brig. Gen. Yasser Saleh, a Yemeni military and strategic expert, said the National Defense Council’s directive aims to neutralize Houthi missile and drone capabilities amid the group’s continued escalation on battlefronts and attacks on vital facilities and infrastructure. Government operations initially focused on repelling attacks because forces lacked sufficient air defense systems to intercept missiles and drones, Saleh explained. Raising the level of deterrence would mean conducting preemptive strikes against launch sites and other sources of fire, reducing the Houthis’ ability to mount further attacks, he added. Saleh described the deployment of government drones as a major development because ground forces require close air support. Drones can conduct reconnaissance, identify targets and strike enemy movements, potentially becoming a key asset if developments lead to a decisive battle. Government forces are currently using small loitering drones and others capable of dropping munitions, while they are believed to possess more advanced aircraft capable of carrying guided missiles, flying longer distances and striking targets deep inside Houthi-held territory, he said. Unifying government forces would also allow simultaneous operations on multiple fronts, preventing the Houthis from choosing the time and place of battle or concentrating their forces on a single axis, Saleh went on to say. Possible offensive Brig. Gen. Mohammed Al-Kumaim, a Yemeni military expert, said expanded deterrence operations could pave the way for the use of strategic-range drones alongside advanced rocket launchers with ranges of 40 to 60 kilometers. Potential targets could include command, control and communications centers, supply and reinforcement routes, and missile and drone launch sites. Al-Kumaim described heavy fire against forward Houthi positions as “preparatory fire” that typically precedes offensive operations, particularly as the group continues to mass forces across several fronts. He called the deployment of drones a “qualitative shift,” although those seen so far have limited range and capabilities. Government forces are believed to possess other systems that have yet to enter combat, including the Naqam, Ayban and Shaheen, as well as specialized units trained to operate them. Al-Kumaim said government forces are better organized than they were in 2022, with a unified operations room and stronger coordination among military fronts and formations. Rebuilding deterrence Political and military expert Abdul Wahab Buhaibeh said the council’s directives shift government forces from reacting to Houthi attacks toward seizing the initiative. He expects longer-range drones to be deployed for reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, artillery and missile fire correction, as well as direct strikes. The directives also include heightened readiness, stronger early-warning capabilities, intensified intelligence operations and tighter security and maritime measures to track weapons-smuggling routes to the Houthis, alongside preparations for possible ground operations. Buhaibeh described the approach as a multidimensional strategy combining air and missile operations with security, intelligence and maritime efforts to rebuild deterrence after years in which the Houthis benefited from their relative superiority in missiles and drones and divisions among their opponents. Yemen and the regional conflict The experts agreed that Yemen’s escalation cannot be separated from the broader regional conflict. Saleh said Tehran could push its allies to widen the confrontation if fighting with Washington resumes, while Buhaibeh warned that continued Houthi control of Hodeidah and the Red Sea coast gives Iran leverage over international shipping. Speaking to AFP, Yemen’s information minister had warned of a Houthi plan to seize coastal areas near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Three Houthi military sources and a spokesman for government forces stationed near the strait also told the agency that the group was planning to advance toward those areas. Saleh said mounting domestic pressure on the Houthis, combined with regional tensions, could lead to a broader confrontation and potentially pave the way for what he called a “battle of liberation.” Al-Kumaim, meanwhile, stressed the need for a decisive move before Yemen’s crisis again becomes part of potential US-Iran arrangements, saying the situation is heading toward further escalation but remains dependent on regional and international developments.
