Events since the United States revived its Ukraine peace bid say more about its chances than the sunny rhetoric that accompanies it. President Donald Trump told reporters Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin “is wanting to make a deal.” He added that if Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky “is wanting to make a deal, that’d be very nice.” But there’s nothing nice about the reality in Eastern Europe. On Wednesday, a Russian jet-propelled drone breached Moldovan airspace and delayed the departure of a plane taking Zelensky to Norway. And after Trump’s envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff left Kyiv after a peace shuttle visit that followed a trip to Moscow, Putin’s missiles and drones on Tuesday ended a three-day halt to attacks with a new onslaught that killed five people. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner attend a meeting with Ukrainian president in Kyiv on September 6, 2026, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images The Moldovan incident didn’t appear to be a direct threat to Zelensky — although the country’s US ambassador, Vladislav Kulminski, told CNN’s Jim Sciutto the incursion by a Russian surveillance drone was likely “not an accident.” And the raids on Kyiv were just the latest act of perpetual horror inflicted on civilians. Off-key remarks These incidents underscore the vicious brutality of a war that CNN reported Tuesday is costing Russia some 40,000 troops each month, citing Western intelligence agencies. The conflict is also showing an alarming new propensity to spread beyond its borders amid rising fears of a NATO-Russia clash in Europe. So any serious, sincere effort by the Trump administration to reengage in diplomacy after its attention was dragged away by the Iran war would be welcome. The president’s critics mock his hyperbolic claims to have ended multiple wars. But a fair peace in Ukraine would be a monumental achievement. Still, public signs out of the US diplomatic duo’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky offer little hope that the entrenched factors that extended the war for more than four years have eased. And a sequence of off-key remarks and gestures raise doubts about their grasp on the nature of the war, Russia’s motives and an approach that mirrors a repeatedly failed real estate transaction. In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow on September 5, 2026. Mikhail Metzel/Pool/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images In Moscow, Witkoff’s deferential and glowing comments to Putin about how their meetings would be a highlight to remember in retirement were startling given the Russian leader’s ruthless assault on Ukrainians and warnings among US allies of Kremlin covert sabotage threatening their territory. Kushner later spoke about the need to find a “win-win” situation for both Putin and Zelensky that would convince them stop fighting. This might be seen as the pragmatic touch of a dealmaker who must force each side to make distasteful choices in service of peace. But delivering a “win” to Russia would validate its choice to wage an illegal and unprovoked war to obliterate a neighbor’s territory, history and culture. And Putin restated that the “root causes” of the conflict still need to be addressed. That’s Russia’s code for ending Ukraine’s sovereignty and demilitarization while Moscow demands land in eastern provinces its troops are yet to conquer — all of which would be impossible for Zelensky to accept. Trump’s comments, meanwhile, reflect nearly two years of blithe and demonstrably disproven assessments of a war that keeps getting worse. “The holdup is two people hating each other,” he told reporters at Andrews Air Force base — a reference to Putin and Zelensky that ignored the complex political and historical factors cited by the Russian leader when he launched the war. “I know about deals, and these are two people that are tired of fighting. It could happen.” Despite his optimism, the prospect of new and effective US diplomacy appears as elusive as the US delivering on Trump’s apparent offer earlier in the summer to allow Ukraine to license the manufacture of Patriot anti-missile interceptors. There are also fresh doubts about US motives amid opacity surrounding what exactly happened in the meetings with Putin, which took place amid already deep intrigue over a recent visit to Russia by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Various leaks have suggested the US spy chief warned Moscow that the Ukraine war was going poorly for Russia, and to not even think about moving on any NATO territory. But it’s impossible to know for sure what is going on between Moscow and Washington — or between Putin and Trump, who had a telephone conversation this week. The US president’s history of flattering the Russian leader has long cast doubt on the administration’s motives on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia sent hints after the meeting about future economic opportunities between the two nations, renewing fears in Europe that Trump is more interested in deals, perhaps related to Russian mineral and natural resources, than a just peace in Ukraine. And any sense that the US is an honest broker was undermined recently when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent partly blamed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian infrastructure, alongside the Iran war, for high oil prices. This reinforced impressions the US sees Ukraine’s self-defense as an irritant rather than a legitimate right. Emergency and municipal services clear debris and work to restore order at the site of severe destruction following a massive overnight Russian ballistic missile attack on August 19, 2026, in Kyiv, Ukraine. Kostiantyn Liberov/Libkos/Getty Images ‘A conclusion acceptable to both sides’ On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Colombia that there was a chance over the next few weeks to “maybe reach a conclusion there that that’s acceptable to both sides.” But he conceded that a lot of work needed to be done. Most wars end eventually. And the terrible toll of this one for both sides may eventually weigh on negotiations. Ukraine has not only survived but is showing an increasing capacity to project force inside Russia. But Russia has also made recent advances on the battlefield, CNN reported on Wednesday — though its casualty figures are so extreme that even Putin may have to take notice. Could the war’s shifting dynamics unlock flexibility that has so far been elusive? Or, more likely, are Ukraine’s civilians destined for another cold, bloody winter as Russia pounds their apartment blocks and power plants? A genuine peace effort is desperately needed, and the fact that Kushner and Witkoff visited Kyiv for the first time during the war last week generated some favorable statements from Zelensky’s government. But there’s a pattern in Trump’s diplomacy. After consultations with Putin, Washington tends to produce a proposal that strongly reflects Russia’s goals. When Zelensky balks, the administration shows frustration, and subsequent, watered-down versions of the plan become unacceptable to the Kremlin. Until that changes, hopes for a new US initiative must remain reserved. 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