The rise of the nationalist right in Europe is no longer merely an electoral phenomenon measured by the number of seats won by the Alternative for Germany, the National Rally in France, or the Freedom Party in Austria. The issue goes deeper than that: Europe is witnessing the beginning of a confrontation between two different philosophies for the future of the European Union. The first was founded with the Maastricht Treaty, while the second is currently taking shape around the re-prioritization of sovereignty, borders, and national identity.
Starting with Jean Monnet's vision of intertwining economic interests as a means of preventing a new European war, the path to integration moved from coal and steel to the common market, eventually leading to Maastricht, which transformed Europe from an economic community into a political union project.
In fact, the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 represented a moment of great optimism about Europe's direction toward unity. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, coupled with Germany's reunification, presented an opportunity for Europe to move beyond centuries of national conflicts by building a union based on shared sovereignty.
With the emergence of globalization, the new idea symbolized a shift in the concept of sovereignty and borders: a European state does not lose its sovereignty when part of it is exercised collectively, but instead becomes stronger. From this philosophy emerged the unified currency, European citizenship, the common market, and freedom of movement, alongside expanded powers for European institutions and progress toward a more united foreign and defense policy. These developments paved the way for the transformation from the nation-state to Europe.
After more than three decades, the opposite trend is gaining momentum. Successive crises, from the euro crisis to immigration, through the Corona pandemic, the Russian-Ukrainian war, the energy crisis, and the declining competitiveness of some European industries, have generated a feeling among growing sectors of Europeans that part of the decisions affecting their daily lives is no longer in the hands of the national state.
On this ground, the nationalist right is rising. Despite significant differences among the Alternative for Germany, the National Rally in France, Brothers of Italy, the Austrian Freedom Party, and the Swedish Democrats, there is a common ideological thread: reaffirming the nation-state as the primary source of political legitimacy. As a result, sovereignty, borders, migration, and identity have returned to the heart of the European debate.
The majority of the rising nationalist forces no longer wish to repeat the British experience of leaving the European Union. Brexit revealed the significant economic and political costs of separation. Thus, we are witnessing a change in the right-wing strategy: the option is no longer to gradually leave Europe, but to change it from within.
In this context, Italy offers an experience worth noting. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni did not leave the union or NATO, nor did she abandon the euro, but she has worked to push European policies toward stricter migration and border controls and to provide a greater role for national governments.
Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrives at the funeral of human rights activist Emma Bonino. (AFP)
In France, the National Rally has also shifted from skepticism about the euro and the union toward seeking power to change the balance within European institutions. In Germany, the rise of the Alternative for Germany could significantly contribute to reshaping a new equation due to Germany's exceptional weight within the union's structure.
If these trends continue, the nationalist right might not aim to dismantle the union but to change its nature. The single market, the euro, freedom of trade, and essential institutions might remain, while the ambition toward a more centralized political union may recede.
It is anticipated that states will regain greater powers in areas such as immigration, borders, security, and foreign policy, emphasizing the priority of identity and national interest. Europe seems to be moving toward a gradual transition from a "political union" to a concept of a "union that returns part of its sovereignty to the states."
The borders represent the clearest test of this transformation. For decades, the European project considered the decreasing importance of internal borders one of its most significant achievements, with globalization and economic interdependence making borders less rigid, as American political scientist Michael Mandelbaum believed at the time.
But Europe today is experiencing a new nationalist discourse reconnecting sovereignty with borders, as adherents of this concept believe that no state can exercise its sovereignty if it cannot monitor its borders and determine who enters its territory and who has the right to reside there.
The decisive test will be in France and Germany. While the rise of the nationalist right in small or medium-sized countries may disrupt the union, gaining legitimacy in Paris or Berlin would change its entire center of gravity and propose a new power equation. If this coincides with the continued nationalist trend in Italy and other countries, reconsidering the union's philosophy might become unavoidable.
The historical paradox is that the European project was born, to a significant extent, to prevent nationalism from returning to a dominant position on the continent. After more than seventy years, nationalism itself might be reshaping this project from within.
