Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will seek to leverage the NATO summit to burnish his international credentials, analysts say, despite mounting scrutiny over a domestic crackdown on political opponents ahead of a presidential election. Hosting the July 7-8 summit offers Ankara a chance to underscore Türkiye’s role as a pivotal regional power and an intermediary between the United States and Europe, as geopolitical tensions rise. Analysts say Erdogan is seeking to capitalize on Türkiye’s elevated profile since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, as conflict in the Middle East and tensions within the transatlantic alliance reshape Western security priorities. His goal is to position Türkiye as "an indispensable actor in security and geopolitical processes in Europe and beyond," foreign policy expert Serkan Demirtas told AFP. NATO unity has been tested in recent months, particularly since the United States and Israel began attacking Iran on February 28, sparking war. But European governments declined to participate in the military campaign, which Türkiye also opposed, angering US President Donald Trump, who has lashed out at the NATO alliance. Despite the standoff, Trump will attend the summit in Ankara alongside more than 30 other world leaders. A key member of the alliance, Türkiye occupies a strategic crossroads between Europe and the Middle East, and fields NATO's second-largest army. "Holding the summit in Türkiye will serve as a reminder to the rest of the alliance of the important role Ankara has played since joining NATO in 1952 -- not only inside the alliance but also across the broader region," said Luke Coffey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. - 'In the right direction' - According to a Turkish security source, hosting the summit is a "diplomatic success" that reaffirms Türkiye as a balancing power while highlighting its growing importance to European defenses. Demirtas said Türkiye provides substantial military capacity, pointing to its participation in major NATO exercises and its prominent role in missions, particularly in the Baltic region. Still, the relationship is far from seamless. "There have been challenges in the US- Türkiye bilateral relationship in recent years, and at times these tensions have spilt over into NATO's internal dynamics," Coffey said. In 2022, Türkiye initially blocked Sweden and Finland's bids to join NATO following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, although both were eventually admitted. Ankara also drew US ire by purchasing the Russian S-400 missile systems, prompting its removal from the F-35 fighter jet program, and NATO voicing compatibility concerns. Even so, Trump's good rapport with Erdogan has helped preserve dialogue between the two sides. "On balance, the relationship is trending in the right direction. It is in everyone's interest that next month's summit goes smoothly," Coffey said. - Muted concerns - Aaron Stein, head of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said NATO membership remains " Türkiye’s ultimate deterrent", allowing Ankara to compartmentalize its complex ties with Russia. It means Türkiye does not have to face Russia alone, giving it greater flexibility to engage Moscow, he said. Analysts say keeping Türkiye aligned with NATO is critical, given its ability to engage in multiple theatres from Ukraine to the Middle East and across a range of regional crises. Ankara has pursued a delicate balancing act since the start of the Ukraine war, hosting several rounds of talks between the warring sides in Istanbul and beyond. "Türkiye has supported Kyiv, sometimes quietly, with key munitions and equipment, while also maintaining channels with both sides in an effort to pursue a diplomatic solution," Coffey said. - Pragmatism - The summit coincides with a wave of domestic turmoil after a court ruling ousted Türkiye’s main opposition leader -- in what critics say is the latest judicial maneuver by Erdogan to quash rivals ahead of a presidential race in 2028. But European governments have kept their concerns muted, treading carefully to avoid damaging ties with Ankara, Demirtas said. With Türkiye’s EU accession bid largely stalled, cooperation has shifted towards pragmatic areas such as defense, where Ankara has expanded its industrial capacity and secured deals with European partners. The Turkish security source said Ankara expects allies to ease restrictions on its defense sector and deepen industrial cooperation. For Erdogan, the summit also offers a domestic political boost -- a chance to reinforce his image as "the leader who defends Türkiye’s interests most forcefully on the international stage", Demirtas said. As for Western tolerance of Ankara's increasingly authoritarian drift, Stein suggested it was largely compartmentalized. "NATO isn't a club exclusively for democracies," he said.
