Emerging and developing economies outside China are expected to add as much new renewable energy capacity as advanced economies for the first time over the next five years, driven by the current energy crisis, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. Gas and oil prices have soared this year as the US-Iran war disrupts traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas trade. Global renewable energy capacity is forecast to increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, the IEA said in its annual outlook. Emerging and developing economies are expected to add about 1,100 GW, roughly the same as advanced economies, with China adding around 2,550 GW, the agency said. Capacity growth in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East is expected to triple over the period, led mainly by solar installations, the IEA said. China will remain the biggest contributor to global renewable energy growth, although its share is forecast to fall to 53% by 2031 from 60% in 2025. India is emerging as the world's second-fastest deployer of renewables and is expected to more than double its contribution to global growth by 2031 to nearly 8.5%. Grid connection delays remain a major challenge, with projects awaiting connections worldwide rising 60% over the past year, equivalent to four times the wind and solar capacity connected to grids during the same period. Grid constraints are expected to slow growth in advanced economies, with annual additions in Europe through 2031 forecast to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels. Renewable energy is expected to meet 6% of global transport energy demand by 2031, while higher fuel-blending mandates prompted the IEA to raise its biofuels forecast by 40% from last year's report.
