Dubai: Dubai Police has identified 28 future drivers that could shape the security landscape beyond 2026, as part of a foresight study examining how geopolitical tensions, technological change and other emerging forces could affect cities across the region.Developed by the Future Foresight Centre at Dubai Police with experts and specialists in future scenario development, the study examines potential changes across six dimensions: economic, technological, social, environmental, political and security.Rather than predicting a single outcome, the study maps different possibilities and the forces that could drive them, with the aim of helping institutions anticipate emerging threats and strengthen their readiness.Cyber threats, critical infrastructure among key risksOf the 28 future drivers examined, Dubai Police identified several high-impact areas where uncertainty remains particularly significant. These include the security readiness of digital systems, cybersecurity threats and information warfare, the stability of critical infrastructure, and public trust and social stability.The study notes that amid geopolitical tensions and evolving regional security dynamics, cities could face unconventional threats, particularly during periods of instability. Cyber systems and vital infrastructure could be among the main targets.Brigadier Dr Hamdan Ahmad Al Ghasiyah, Director of the Future Foresight Centre, said global cities are important centres for the economy, trade and tourism, making their stability critical to maintaining their regional and international roles.He said assessing the stability of cities could no longer depend solely on traditional indicators, but must also take into account interconnected social, cultural, technological, political and environmental factors.Four possible security scenariosDubai Police developed four future scenarios as part of the study: Continued Stability, The New Balance, Adaptive Resilience and Transformative Security.Brigadier Al Ghasiyah said rapid political transformations and economic volatility have made examining different future possibilities a strategic necessity.Scenario planning enables institutions to assess areas of uncertainty, consider different pathways and their potential consequences, and develop measures to improve organisational agility and preparedness, he said.AI, predictive systems among proposed measuresThe study also outlines 21 proactive measures designed to strengthen preparedness for potential future threats.Among the key measures highlighted are developing plans and training exercises that simulate emerging and unconventional security threats, and establishing an integrated operations centre bringing together field security, cyber capabilities and artificial intelligence.It also proposes deploying Agentic AI to counter misinformation and information warfare through fact-checking and verification, as well as developing real-time predictive systems capable of identifying patterns and providing early warnings of potential threats.Colonel Omar Khalifa Balobaida Al Suwaidi, Deputy Director of the Future Foresight Centre, said scenario building was not simply about predicting what would happen or identifying a single path for future events.Instead, the approach is intended to broaden strategic thinking, prepare institutions for different possibilities and support proactive and flexible decision-making amid regional and international uncertainty.The study forms part of Dubai Police's efforts to anticipate developments over the near, medium and long term and use future scenarios to support proactive security planning.
