Dollar Nears Six-week High; Mixed Signals on US-Iran Deal Feed Uncertainty

The dollar traded near six-week highs on Friday, after conflicting signals over a US-Iran peace deal whipped up volatility across financial markets, though investors latched on to hopes of some progress. Washington and Tehran stuck to opposing stances over the latter’s uranium stockpile and control of the Strait of Hormuz, although US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been “some good signs” in talks. The dollar rose 0.17% against a basket of six major currencies to 99.37, just shy of six-week highs. The euro, which was headed for a second weekly loss, was down 0.2% on the day at $1.1594, while the pound was slightly lower at $1.342, having shrugged off data earlier that showed retail sales dropped by the most in nearly a year in April, as consumers felt the pinch of the inflationary effects of the Iran war. The dollar found additional support from US data, which showed weekly jobless claims fell last week while manufacturing activity rose to a four-year high in May, underscoring resilience in the world’s largest economy. “We’re coming to the end of week 12, we’re six weeks in the ceasefire, and I’m just not really that convinced we’re any closer to a resolution between the US and Iran,” Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, said of the Middle East war. “I still feel like the risks are for the US dollar to go higher, because I really just don’t see a way out of this situation in the Middle East without them sort of needing to be more forceful.” The US dollar’s strength and persistently high oil prices have spelled pain for the yen, which on Friday struggled on the weaker side of 159 per dollar. It was 0.1% lower at 159.09 per dollar. The yen is teetering even after likely intervention from Tokyo just weeks ago to support it. It has given up nearly 75% of its gains from the presumed intervention, which has left traders on alert for further moves by Japanese authorities. “It’s just buying time, really. What they need is a change in fundamentals, and I think the best thing that could happen is a quick deal to end the Iran conflict,” said Lee Hardman, a currency strategist at MUFG. “I don’t think you’d see dollar/yen drop too sharply from here, but even if it just got back down into the mid 150s, taking some of the selling pressure off the yen, that would probably be the best they can hope for right now.” The Bank of Japan is only expected to raise borrowing costs gradually while other central banks, including the European Central Bank, are likely to deliver hikes far more quickly, which puts the yen at a disadvantage with investors who seek out extra returns from higher domestic interest rates. On a trade-weighted basis, the yen is at record lows, which favours its exporters but compounds the energy-price shock, given Japan’s reliance on imported goods. Data on Friday showed Japan’s core inflation slowed to a four-year low in April, complicating the outlook for BOJ policy. Currencies in emerging Asia have also come under immense pressure owing to the surge in global oil prices, forcing policymakers to take increasingly urgent and unusual steps to shore up their economies. The Turkish lira hit record lows against the dollar on Friday after a court ruling went against the main opposition party.