The US midterm elections take place on Tuesday, with voters choosing all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats. According to the Cook Political Report, a leading election analysis outlet, Democrats have strong chances of winning a House majority. However, around 17 House races remain highly competitive between the two parties. These projections have raised questions about the domestic and foreign policy changes a Democratic victory could bring. Over recent months, senior party leaders have promised to pass legislation addressing key concerns among American voters, including the cost-of-living crisis, rising food and fuel prices, healthcare costs and corruption within President Donald Trump's administration. Much attention has focused on an emergency legislative package that House Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the leading candidate for speaker, plans to introduce if his party wins. The package would include a bill to restore subsidies for health insurance premiums under the Affordable Care Act, which have expired, and another to reverse nearly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid approved by the Republican administration. On foreign policy, Democrats want to reclaim congressional authority over trade policy, particularly tariffs, and decisions to launch military operations abroad. Their priorities include the war on Iran. They could refuse to support funding for the conflict or seek to make congressional approval a condition for its continuation. Analysts also expect a Democratic victory to bring renewed calls for restoring some US aid to Ukraine and taking a tougher stance toward Russia. Democrats could also revisit legislation seeking to reduce military aid to Israel or impose conditions on its use, particularly as opposition to the war on Gaza grows within the party. Democrats have made fighting corruption a central theme of their campaign. They hope a popular mandate will allow them to investigate suspected misconduct by Trump and members of his administration. They also want control of congressional committees with subpoena powers. Maryland Representative Jamie Raskin, who could become chairman of the House Judiciary Committee next year if Democrats regain control, has warned that Trump could use his veto to block their initiatives. Raskin said that if Trump vetoed their proposals, Democrats would turn their attention to exposing the widespread corruption that defined his administration. He pointed to suspected corruption in government contracts, particularly those awarded without competitive bidding, as well as concerns surrounding cryptocurrencies of unclear origin. Even if Democrats win control of both chambers, they would gain greater influence over the congressional agenda and the ability to pass legislation, but Trump could still block their initiatives through his veto power. Winning control of the House, or both chambers of Congress, would give Democrats stronger tools to challenge the White House and scrutinize its policies. These include immigration and government spending. Democrats oppose increases in the defense budget and cuts to social programs. Such a victory could also reshape the final two years of Trump's current term and create a new political reality for Republicans. But significant obstacles stand in the way of Democratic ambitions. A House majority would allow Democrats to intensify oversight of the administration, but many of their legislative priorities could still be blocked, particularly if they fail to win the Senate as well. Passing most legislation in the Senate requires 60 votes, a threshold that allows lawmakers to overcome Republican obstruction. Democrats appear unlikely to reach that number. Polls suggest they would need to gain at least 13 additional seats to secure a 60-seat majority. Even if Democrats win control of both chambers, they would gain greater influence over the congressional agenda and the ability to pass legislation, but Trump could still block their initiatives through his veto power. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers, an outcome that appears difficult given the country's complex political and electoral landscape. These constraints have dampened enthusiasm among some Democratic lawmakers for impeaching Trump, compared with previous election cycles. Some have also grown pessimistic about the prospects of prosecuting or investigating the president and members of his administration, given his record of delaying proceedings and finding ways around legal challenges. The New York Times quoted Democratic Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii, a candidate for the party's second-highest leadership position when the new Congress takes office next year, as saying that as long as Trump is president, passing ambitious progressive legislation will be out of reach. “If you give us power, we will in some cases reverse his decisions, stop him from making terrible decisions and in other cases slow him down,” said Schatz. This is an edited translation of an article originally published in Arabic.
