The full extent of damage to Iran’s military from US and Israeli strikes in 2026 remains unclear. “What is clear is that absent regime change, Iran will move quickly to reconstitute,” said a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “Open-source evidence, though incomplete, points to significant degradation of Iran’s military in the recent conflict. Commercial satellite imagery confirms the loss of nearly all of Tehran’s conventional naval surface fleet and further damage to its principal military shipyards and naval bases, which have also been rendered partially inoperable by sunken vessels blocking military berths.” Imagery also shows damage to aboveground weapon production sites and munitions facilities. Reports vary on the extent to which the 6,770 drone and missile launches as of April 1 have depleted Iran’s inventory. Recent US government assessments reported in the New York Times and the Washington Post say Tehran retains 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile but only 40 percent of its drone arsenal. “Based on the damage, Iran will look to clearing the ports, as without functional ports, the rest of the reconstitution effort is bottlenecked. Marine salvage operations to remove sunken hulls and restore channel access are necessary for much of what follows,” said the CSIS report. Iran will seek to repair and rebuild weapons and munitions facilities. This is the precondition for reconstituting military production at scale. The work will require not just construction, but the replacement of damaged or destroyed manufacturing equipment. “Drones are central to Iran’s military doctrine, its asymmetric posture, and its military export regime. Restoring and maintaining stockpiles will be a first-order priority.” “With the conventional fleet degraded and shipyards damaged, Tehran is likely to lean further into the Revolutionary Guards small boat, fast attack, and unmanned maritime capabilities - platforms that are cheaper, faster to build, and better suited to the harassment and denial missions Iran is most likely to pursue in the near term,” said the report. Clearing the ports requires specialized equipment, including enclosed marine salvage airbags, high-capacity submersible hydraulic pumps, and heavy-duty overhead gantry cranes. Replenishing the drone fleet requires the sustained import of critical components. As recently as November 2022, according to leaked documents from a Russian delegation visit, Iran was assessed to be able to produce approximately 5,000 engines and 500 airframes for the Shahed-136 drone annually. To do so, Iran requires a consistent supply of imported components, such as electronics and engines. Iran will also look to rebuild lost domestic production capabilities, importing not only components from abroad but also the fundamental equipment and materials needed to rebuild its partial self-sufficiency. Iran’s procurement routes are being reshaped by the conflict. Iran is likely to develop more procurement pathways through countries bordering the Caspian in general. “While Chinese materials, components, and equipment will likely be good enough to meet the bulk of Iran’s needs, Iran will likely continue its attempts to illicitly procure advanced Western technologies, such as German and Japanese machine tool controllers,” said the report. “Diplomatic pressure on China could also lead to further trade obfuscation, with goods making multiple stops between China and Iran, making it more difficult to identify sources of supply but also slowing procurements and making them more costly,” it added.
