Following the conclusion of the Israeli elections, attention is turning towards the midterm elections in the United States. The race between Democrats and Republicans is heating up. Historically, the party opposing the president's party has held an advantage in midterm elections, benefiting from a broader margin of political opposition and its ability to target the ruling party and hold it responsible for any negative repercussions affecting American voters.
The Democrats are entering the race with strong momentum, fuelled by current U.S. President Donald Trump's failure to end the war against Iran or reach a settlement that would secure a victory, alongside rising energy prices and mounting bills. Should the Democratic camp achieve significant gains in the elections, questions arise over the extent to which Congress could narrow Trump's room for manoeuvre, particularly regarding Iran.
Before examining the potential election results, it is worth noting that regardless of the final outcome for Republicans and Democrats, the winning representatives will not assume their duties in Congress before January 3, 2027. Consequently, the winning party will not secure a majority before that date. Moreover, the composition of Congress will remain unchanged until the beginning of next year.
As far as Iran is concerned, the balance of power in the United States will remain unchanged. Meanwhile, in Israel, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely to remain in a caretaker role, as negotiations to form a government are expected to be particularly arduous and may ultimately fail. Therefore, no major changes in American or Israeli policies are expected, and Trump might use this period to escalate against Iran once again.
A Democratic victory in the midterm elections would not allow the party to strip the U.S. President of his powers or obstruct his foreign policy, American affairs researcher Akeel Abbas told "Annahar".
Democrats can pass bills and laws, but Trump can choose not to sign them, sending them back to Congress, where they would then require a two-thirds majority to override his decision, a threshold that is unlikely to be reached.
However, Abbas does not rule out the possibility that Democrats, if victorious, could attempt to reopen certain files to distract Trump from his policies, such as the "Epstein" issue or financial and oversight matters that could cause him embarrassment. In addition, they would chair some congressional committees, potentially giving the U.S. President some "headaches". In such a scenario, Democrats would put themselves in a position to negotiate with Trump and secure concessions from him.
Abbas concludes that decisions on war and foreign policy will remain in Trump's hands. Some issues, such as the war with Iran, are not contentious within the United States, according to the American researcher, unlike the Ukrainian issue, over which Trump and Congress disagree.
Democrats in Congress might raise questions about the "mismanagement of the war", but they would not be able to influence the direction of policies or Trump's decisions.
Ultimately, Democrats could win the midterm elections in both chambers of Congress or in the House of Representatives alone. While they would be able to influence domestic policies, control over foreign policy and the final decision would remain with the White House and the U.S. administration led by Trump. Therefore, the two-month period before Democrats assume the majority, should they win, would not place pressure on Trump or his decisions.
