Trading volume linked to the possibility of US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth being dismissed has exceeded $7.5 million on prediction markets, which now allow users to bet on his political future amid growing calls for his removal from within both the Republican and Democratic parties.
The platforms Kalshi and Polymarket offer markets dedicated to the likelihood of Hegseth's removal, including detailed options on the names of House members who might support impeachment proceedings and the possibility of the Senate voting to convict him.
According to data from Kalshi, traders placed the odds of Hegseth being removed by the end of next week at 71% as of Monday.
If the House of Representatives moves to impeach Hegseth, it would mark the first time in US history that an impeachment vote has been linked to betting markets with trading volumes reaching millions of dollars.
Prediction markets allow users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events across various fields, including politics, sports and entertainment. However, the sector has come under criticism for turning various aspects of public life into gambling opportunities, amid concerns about the implications for addiction and the potential exploitation of insider information for financial gain.
